Raleigh, N.C. – It has been three weeks since voters in Mississippi gave incumbent Senator Thad Cochran a victory over State Senator Chris McDaniel in a runoff election but voters are still deeply divided over the general election with no candidate receiving more than 40% support in the latest PPP poll.
Cochran has the most statewide support, in a Senate race featuring Cochran, Democrat Travis Childers and Reform candidate Shawn O’Hara Cochran leads with 40/24/5. However in this race 31% of the electorate, apparent McDaniel supporters, are undecided. In a race where McDaniel replaces Cochran as the Republican nominee Childers narrowly leads the race over McDaniel 37/36/4 with 24% of the electorate undecided.Cochran is shown to still win handily, but the results showcase the deep divisions in the state. Only 39% of Republicans in Mississippi approve of Cochran while 51% have a favorable opinion of McDaniel. Continuing the trend from the primary Democrats across Mississippi continue to support Cochran, 58% of Democrats approve of Cochran and 31% of Democrats say they would vote for Cochran over Childers in the general election.
Exactly 50% of statewide voters believe that McDaniel should concede the primary, but 44% of Republicans believe that McDaniel was the real winner of the runoff election. Additionally 39% of Republicans think that McDaniel should not concede the race to Cochran. The poll also revealed several interesting demographic results. Cochran enjoys vast African American support with a 59% approval among African American voters in Mississippi. In the general election 37% of African American voters said they would support Cochran compared to 36% for Childers, 3% for O’Hara and 25% undecided.
“The general election in Mississippi doesn’t look like much of a contest,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “There are Republicans with reservations about Thad Cochran but he makes up for that with his unusually strong support from black voters. Chris McDaniel supporters aren’t ready to let it go yet though.”
PPP surveyed 691 Mississippi voters overall and 501 Republican primary voters from July 10th to 13th. The margin of error for the overall sample is +/-3.7% and for the Republican primary voters it’s +/-4.4%.This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
General Election Toplines
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 39%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 54%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Thad
Cochran’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 47%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Travis Childers?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 26%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 47%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Chris McDaniel?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 29%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 53%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q5 If the candidates for U.S. Senate this fall were
Republican Thad Cochran, Democrat Travis
Childers, and Reform Party candidate Shawn
O’Hara, who would you vote for?
Thad Cochran …………………………………………. 40%
Travis Childers………………………………………… 24%
Shawn O’Hara ………………………………………… 5%
Undecided………………………………………………. 31%
Q6 Horse race, with O’Hara supporters asked
whether they lean Cochran or Childers
Thad Cochran …………………………………………. 41%
Travis Childers………………………………………… 26%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 33%
Q7 If the candidates for U.S. Senate this fall were
Republican Chris McDaniel, Democrat Travis
Childers, and Reform Party candidate Shawn
O’Hara, who would you vote for?
Chris McDaniel ……………………………………….. 36%
Travis Childers………………………………………… 37%
Shawn O’Hara ………………………………………… 4%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 23%
Q8 Who do you think rightfully won the Republican
nomination for the Senate: Thad Cochran or
Chris McDaniel?
Thad Cochran …………………………………………. 58%
Chris McDaniel ……………………………………….. 29%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q9 Do you think that Chris McDaniel should
concede the Republican runoff for Senate, or
not?
Think he should ………………………………………. 50%
Think he should not …………………………………. 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q10 Would you rather Mississippi continue its
current open primary system, where voters can
choose which party’s primary to vote in, or
switch to a closed primary system where voters
would have to register with a party to vote in its
primary?
Rather continue the open primary system …… 66%
Rather move to a closed primary ……………….. 21%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q11 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Haley Barbour?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 36%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 22%
Q12 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 42%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 50%
Someone else / Don’t remember ……………….. 8%
Q13 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal……………………………………………… 10%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 14%
Moderate………………………………………………… 26%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 25%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 26%
Q14 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 54%
Man……………………………………………………….. 46%
Q15 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 39%
Republican……………………………………………… 43%
Independent / Other…………………………………. 19%
Q16 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 60%
African-American …………………………………….. 34%
Other……………………………………………………… 6%
Q17 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 20%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 45%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 23%
Q18 Mode
Phone ……………………………………………………. 80%
Internet ………………………………………………….. 20%
Runoff Toplines
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Thad
Cochran’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 47%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Chris McDaniel?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 46%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q3 Who do you think rightfully won the Republican
nomination for the Senate: Thad Cochran or
Chris McDaniel?
Thad Cochran …………………………………………. 54%
Chris McDaniel ……………………………………….. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q4 Do you think that Chris McDaniel should
concede the Republican runoff for Senate, or
not?
Think he should ………………………………………. 52%
Think he should not …………………………………. 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q5 Would you rather Mississippi continue its
current open primary system, where voters can
choose which party’s primary to vote in, or
switch to a closed primary system where voters
would have to register with a party to vote in its
primary?
Rather continue the open primary system …… 60%
Rather move to a closed primary ……………….. 28%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q6 Did you vote in the Republican runoff election
for U.S. Senate?
Yes ……………………………………………………….100%
No …………………………………………………………. 0%
Q7 (Asked only of runoff voters:) Who did you vote
for in the Republican runoff for Senate?
Thad Cochran …………………………………………. 52%
Chris McDaniel ……………………………………….. 48%
Q8 (Asked only of runoff voters:) Regardless of
who you voted for last month, if the Republican
runoff for Senate was today, would you vote for
Thad Cochran or Chris McDaniel?
Thad Cochran …………………………………………. 51%
Chris McDaniel ……………………………………….. 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 3%
Q9 Do you consider yourself prouder of your
Southern heritage or your American heritage?
Your Southern heritage…………………………….. 35%
Your American heritage ……………………………. 60%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%
Q10 If there were another Civil War today, would
you side with the Confederate States of
America or the United States of America?
The Confederate States……………………………. 29%
The United States ……………………………………. 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%
Q11 Do you support or oppose the South seceding
from the United States and forming its own
country?
Support ………………………………………………….. 16%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 63%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%
Q12 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 19%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 75%
Someone else / Don’t remember ……………….. 6%
Q13 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal……………………………………………… 7%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 8%
Moderate………………………………………………… 17%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 31%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 37%
Q14 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 51%
Man……………………………………………………….. 49%
Q15 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 15%
Republican……………………………………………… 66%
Independent / Other…………………………………. 18%
Q16 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 84%
African-American …………………………………….. 10%
Other……………………………………………………… 6%
Q17 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 10%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 30%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 36%
