Raleigh, N.C. – Minnesota’s constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage now appears to be in serious danger of failing, a reversal from a PPP poll four months ago when it led for passage by a 48/44 margin.
Now only 43% of voters support the proposed amendment, with 49% of voters opposed to it. The shift since then has come with independent voters. After previously supporting the amendment by a 50/40 spread, they’re now opposing it 54/37. Republicans continue to strongly favor the amendment (74/21) while Democrats are almost equally strong in their opposition (71/22).
Independents coming a lot closer to Democrats than Republicans on gay rights is becoming something of a constant in our polling. The GOP seriously risks antagonizing voters in the middle if it continues to pursue a far right social agenda.
Minnesota sees the same massive generational gap on this issue that we’ve found in other states. Voters over 45 support the proposed amendment by a 50/42 spread. But those under 45 oppose it by an even greater 60/34 margin.
Voters in the state think gay marriage should be legal by a 47/42 margin, closely matching the numbers on the amendment. And when you expand the discussion to civil unions 75% of voters support some form of legal recognition for gay couples to only 21% who think there should be none. That includes even 55% of Republicans.
Republicans are headed for better news with their proposed amendment to require voters to show a photo identification when they go to cast their ballots. 58% of voters support that with 34% opposed. Republicans (84/10) are almost unanimously supportive of it.
“The pro-equality side is now winning on gay marriage ballot initiatives in Maryland, Maine, Minnesota, and Washington,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “The landscape has changed significantly since Barack Obama announced his support for gay marriage.”
PPP surveyed 973 Minnesota voters from May 31st to June 3rd. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.1%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Should the Minnesota Constitution be
amended to provide that only a union of one
man and one woman shall be valid or
recognized as a marriage in Minnesota?
Yes………………………………………………………… 43%
No …………………………………………………………. 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q2 Do you think same-sex marriage should be
legal or illegal?
Legal……………………………………………………… 47%
Illegal …………………………………………………….. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q3 Which of the following best describes your
opinion on gay marriage: gay couples should
be allowed to legally marry, or gay couples
should be allowed to form civil unions but not
legally marry, or there should be no legal
recognition of a gay couple’s relationship?
Gay couples should be allowed to legally
marry ……………………………………………………..43%
Gay couples should be allowed to form civil
unions but not marry …………………………………32%
There should be no legal recognition of a gay
couple’s relationship …………………………………21%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%
Q4 Should the Minnesota Constitution be
amended to require all voters to present valid
photo identification to vote and to require the
state to provide free identification to eligible
voters?
Yes………………………………………………………… 58%
No …………………………………………………………. 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q5 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Mark Dayton’s job performance?
Approve…………….. 49%
Disapprove………… 36%
Not sure ……………. 15%
Q6 Do you approve or disapprove of the job the
DFL members of the legislature are doing?
Approve…………….. 31%
Disapprove………… 46%
Not sure ……………. 24%
Q7 Do you approve or disapprove of the job the
Republican members of the legislature are
doing?
Approve…………….. 21%
Disapprove………… 61%
Not sure ……………. 19%
Q8 If there was an election for the legislature
today, do you think you would vote for the DFL
or Republican candidate from your district?
DFL candidate ………………………………………… 48%
Republican candidate ………………………………. 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q9 Do you support or oppose allowing Sunday
liquor sales?
Support ………………………………………………….. 59%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q10 Do you approve or disapprove of the Vikings
Stadium deal?
Approve…………….. 44%
Disapprove………… 41%
Not sure ……………. 15%
Q11 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 41%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 50%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 8%
Q12 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 11%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 20%
Moderate………………………………………………… 32%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 20%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 16%
Q13 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 50%
Man……………………………………………………….. 50%
Q14 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 35%
Republican……………………………………………… 31%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 34%
Q15 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 90%
Other……………………………………………………… 10%
Q16 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 30%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 38%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%