Raleigh, N.C. – If Minnesota is any indication, it looks like the trend of massively unpopular new Republican governors, particularly in the Midwest, is exclusive to the GOP. PPP has shown Wisconsin’s Scott Walker, Ohio’s John Kasich, Pennsylvania’s Tom Corbett, Michigan’s Rick Snyder, Florida’s Rick Scott, and Georgia’s Nathan Deal all losing to their 2010 Democratic opponents in hypothetical do-overs, but Mark Dayton would win by a 48-36-13 landslide in a repeat of the three-way race he won by less than half of one percent over Republican Tom Emmer and independent Tom Horner. 51% approve and 38% approve of Dayton’s performance in office so far.

Republicans last fall took control of both houses of the state legislature by flipping 25 House seats and 16 Senate seats. But were voters to head to the polls today, Democrats would win the generic statewide vote, 49-40.

This fall, voters will cast their ballots on a referendum to amend the state constitution to limit marriage rights to one man and one woman. Minnesotans are split right down the middle on that question, with 47% believing the constitution should not be amended as such, and 46% believing it should. Similarly, 46% support same-sex marriage, and 45% think it should still be illegal.

“Minnesota voters are evenly split on gay marriage right now,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “What’s interesting though is how fast public opinion is moving on this issue. It’s entirely conceivable that in another 17 months the state will have a clear majority supportive of same sex marriage. That’s the direction things are going in.”

47% of the state’s voters want neither Tim Pawlenty nor Michele Bachmann to run for any office next year. 43% of Republicans prefer the congresswoman to challenge Amy Klobuchar, while 57% want their former governor to duel with Obama.

PPP surveyed 1,179 Minnesota voters from May 27th to 30th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-2.9%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.

Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Mark Dayton’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 51%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%

Q2 If you could do last fall’s election for Governor
over again would you vote for Democrat Mark
Dayton, Republican Tom Emmer, or
independent Tom Horner?
Mark Dayton………. 48%
Tom Emmer……….. 36%
Tom Horner ……….. 13%
Not sure ……………. 3%

Q3 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Al
Franken’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 48%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%

Q4 Should the Minnesota Constitution be
amended to provide that only a union of one
man and one woman shall be valid or
recognized as a marriage in Minnesota?
Yes………………………………………………………… 46%
No …………………………………………………………. 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%

Q5 Which of the following best describes your
opinion on gay marriage: gay couples should
be allowed to legally marry, or gay couples
should be allowed to form civil unions but not
legally marry, or there should be no legal
recognition of a gay couple’s relationship?
Gay couples should be allowed to legally
marry ……………………………………………………..38%
Gay couples should be allowed to form civil
unions but not marry …………………………………34%
There should be no legal recognition of a gay
couple’s relationship …………………………………26%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 2%

Q6 Do you think same-sex marriage should be
legal or illegal?
Legal……………………………………………………… 46%
Illegal …………………………………………………….. 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%

Q7 Next year would you like Michele Bachmann to
run for President, the Senate, the House, or not
run for any office?
President………………………………………………… 14%
Senate …………………………………………………… 23%
House ……………………………………………………. 10%
No office…………………………………………………. 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%

Q8 Next year would you like Tim Pawlenty to run
for President, the Senate, or not run for any
office?
President………………………………………………… 28%
Senate …………………………………………………… 17%
No office…………………………………………………. 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%

Q9 Do you approve or disapprove of the job the
DFL members of the legislature are doing?
Approve …………………………………………………. 39%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%

Q10 Do you approve or disapprove of the job the
Republican members of the legislature are
doing?
Approve …………………………………………………. 29%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 58%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%

Q11 If there was an election for the legislature today
do you think you would vote for the DFL or
Republican candidate from your district?
DFL candidate ………………………………………… 49%
Republican candidate ………………………………. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%

Q12 Would you support a tax increase on the
wealthiest 2% of Minnesotans to help balance
the state budget, or do you think the budget
should be balanced through cuts only?
Would support a tax increase on the
wealthiest 2% of Minnesotans ……………………63%
Budget should be balanced through cuts only 32%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%

Q13 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 41%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 52%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 7%

Q14 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 11%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 20%
Moderate………………………………………………… 29%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 25%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 15%

Q15 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 50%
Man……………………………………………………….. 50%

Q16 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 38%
Republican……………………………………………… 31%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 31%

Q17 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 92%
Other……………………………………………………… 8%

Q18 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 30%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 38%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%