Raleigh, N.C. – Despite getting no love from the state’s at-large electorate against President Obama in PPP’s Wednesday release, outgoing Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty is the slim favorite of his own party faithful to get the state’s Republican National Convention delegates.  In the race to take on popular Senator Amy Klobuchar, however, he does less well despite coming closest to beating Klobuchar in Tuesday’s look at the general election.  Instead, newly empowered Congresswoman Michele Bachman is overwhelmingly the darling of hardcore GOP voters.

Bachmann pulls 36% support from usual GOP primary voters, with a wide margin over Pawlenty’s 20%, Norm Coleman’s 14%, and a host of prospective contenders bunched in single digits: 8^th-District Congressman-elect Chip Cravaack at 7%, Tom Emmer at 6%, 2^nd-District Congressman John Kline at 5%, state legislator Laura Brod at 4%, and Erik Paulsen at 2%, with 6% undecided or favoring someone else.  Pawlenty trails Klobuchar by only ten points, versus Bachmann’s 18 and Coleman’s 14.

There is a huge ideological divide at play.  Bachmann, founder of the Congressional Tea Party Caucus, gets a whopping 42% from the conservative supermajority, which makes up almost three-quarters of the electorate.  That puts her far ahead of second-place Pawlenty’s 19%.  But the governor is more narrowly ahead with moderates at 26% to Coleman’s and Bachmann’s 18%.

In the White House contest, Pawlenty earns 24% of the votes to Sarah Palin’s 17%, Mike Huckabee’s 15%, Mitt Romney’s 13%, Newt Gingrich’s 11%, and Ron Paul at 9%–about as close as can be.  John Thune pulls 3% and Mitch Daniels 2%.  The ideological difference here is smaller—Pawlenty does equally well with moderates and conservatives, but Romney gets 20% of moderates over 11% of conservatives, and Palin gets 20% of conservatives over only 7% of moderates.

“So far, Minnesota is the only state where we have found Tim Pawlenty topping the GOP presidential contenders, and the next two contenders are within the margin of error of the lead,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.  “In the Senate race, Amy Klobuchar should be praying that the GOP rallies behind Michele Bachmann.”

PPP surveyed 387 usual Minnesota Republican primary voters on December 4^th and 5^th.  The survey’s margin of error is +/-5.0%.  Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 55%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 23%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Huckabee?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 63%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 68%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 23%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 54%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 24%

Q5 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Tim
Pawlenty’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 80%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 14%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%

Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Michele Bachmann?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 74%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 14%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%

Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Norm Coleman?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 69%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 13%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%

Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tom Emmer?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 73%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 12%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%

Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Erik Paulsen?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 36%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 9%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 55%

Q10 Do you usually vote in Democratic or
Republican primaries, or do you not usually
vote in primaries?
Democratic primaries ……………………………….. 0%
Republican primaries ……………………………….. 100%
Don’t usually vote in primaries …………………… 0%

Q11 Between Michele Bachmann, Laura Brod,
Norm Coleman, Chip Cravaack, Tom Emmer,
John Kline, Tim Pawlenty, and Erik Paulsen
who would you most like to see as the
Republican Senate nominee in 2012?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 36%
Laura Brod……………………………………………… 4%
Norm Coleman………………………………………… 14%
Chip Cravaack ………………………………………… 7%
Tom Emmer ……………………………………………. 6%
John Kline………………………………………………. 5%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 20%
Erik Paulsen……………………………………………. 2%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 6%

Q12 If the Republican candidates for President in
2012 were Mitch Daniels, Newt Gingrich, Mike
Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, Tim
Pawlenty, Mitt Romney, and John Thune who
would you vote for?
Mitch Daniels ………………………………………….. 2%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 11%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 15%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 17%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 9%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 24%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 13%
John Thune…………………………………………….. 3%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 6%

Q13 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 1%
Moderate………………………………………………… 25%
Conservative…………………………………………… 74%

Q14 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 46%
Man……………………………………………………….. 54%

Q15 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 7%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 27%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 43%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 22%