Polls

Miller leads but Alaska Senate looks competitive

| Tom Jensen

Header-poll-resultsRaleigh, N.C. – Joe Miller’s surprising victory in Tuesday’s Republican Senate primary has given Democrats at least a glimmer of hope in Alaska, although that would fade if the defeated Lisa Murkowski ends up running in the general election as the Libertarian candidate.

Miller leads Democratic nominee Scott McAdams 47-39.  McAdams benefits from a more united party, getting 81% of the Democratic vote to Miller’s 73% of the Republicans.  The candidates split even with independents at 42%, a good number for Democrats in a year where their candidates are largely getting blown out with that group of voters.

In a three way race with Murkowski running as a Libertarian Miller would still lead but with only 38% to 34% for Murkowski and 22% for McAdams.  The folks who go for Murkowski favor McAdams 47-23 in a two way contest so somewhat counterintuitively she would actually hurt Democratic chances even though she’d de facto make it a race with 2 Republicans and a Democrat.

Murkowski’s 50/43 approval spread still makes her one of the more popular Senators in the country in PPP’s polling but her 52% support from Democrats is actually better than her 47% with Republicans, speaking to the trouble she had in Tuesday’s primary.  Miller is unpopular with 36% of voters seeing him favorably and 52% negatively.  McAdams is still largely anonymous with 53% of voters offering no opinion about him.

“There’s still a lot of uncertainty about what the final candidate field in Alaska will look like,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.  “But it’s clear this race will be more competitive than anyone ever would have imagined a week ago.”

PPP surveyed 1,306 likely voters on August 27th and 28th.  The margin of error is +/-2.7%.  Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

Complete results are attached and can be found at www.publicpolicypolling.com.

If you would like an interview regarding this release, please contact Dean Debnam at (888) 621-6988 or 919-880-4888.

Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Barack
Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 44%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 53%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%

Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Mark
Begich’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 42%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%

Q3 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Lisa
Murkowski’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 50%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Joe Miller?
Favorable ………….. 36%
Unfavorable……….. 52%
Not sure ……………. 12%

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Scott McAdams?
Favorable ………….. 23%
Unfavorable……….. 24%
Not sure ……………. 53%

Q6 If the candidates for US Senate this fall were
Republican Joe Miller and Democrat Scott
McAdams, who would you vote for?
Joe Miller ……………………………………………….. 47%
Scott McAdams……………………………………….. 39%
Undecided………………………………………………. 14%

Q7 If the candidates for US Senate this fall were
Republican Lisa Murkowski and Democrat
Scott McAdams, who would you vote for?
Lisa Murkowski ……………………………………….. 60%
Scott McAdams……………………………………….. 28%
Undecided………………………………………………. 12%

Q8 If the candidates for US Senate this fall were
Republican Joe Miller, Democrat Scott
McAdams, and Libertarian Lisa Murkowski who
would you vote for?
Joe Miller ……………………………………………….. 38%
Scott McAdams……………………………………….. 22%
Lisa Murkowski ……………………………………….. 34%
Undecided………………………………………………. 6%

Q9 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 55%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 39%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 6%

Q10 If you are a liberal, press 1. If a moderate,
press 2. If a conservative, press 3.
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 14%
Moderate………………………………………………… 44%
Conservative…………………………………………… 42%

Q11 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%

Q12 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 20%
Republican……………………………………………… 38%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 42%

Q13 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 82%
Other……………………………………………………… 18%

Q14 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If older than
65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 8%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 28%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 45%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 19%

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