Raleigh, N.C. – The theme in PPP’s early look at the fields for the Republican nominations for president and U.S. Senate in Michigan is that the candidates who are poised to make those races most competitive in the general election are not the cream rising to the top in the primary.
Wednesday’s release showed John Engler doing worst of the four major candidates tested against Debbie Stabenow, down seven points, but he leads an eight-candidate pack of prospective Stabenow challengers with 31% to Pete Hoekstra’s 24%. Hoekstra trailed Stabenow by only one point. Way behind is state Attorney General Mike Cox, with 12%, followed by two candidates who were very popular across the aisle and did well against Stabenow: Terri Lynn Land, with 7%, and Candice Miller, with 5%. Bringing up the rear are 8th-District Congressman Mike Rogers, with 4%, 11th-District Congressman Thad McCotter, with 3%, and the most likely but by far the most unknown candidate, Tim Leuliette, with less than 1%. The race is so undefined that the third-place “candidate” would be “someone else or undecided,” at 14%.
Tuesday’s release showed that native son Mitt Romney would do by far the best against President Obama in the general election in Michigan, trailing him by only four points to Mike Huckabee’s 12. But in the primary, Romney has fallen considerably from when PPP last polled the race in September, when he had 30% to Sarah Palin’s 17%, Newt Gingrich’s 16%, Huckabee’s 14%, and Ron Paul’s 8%, with 6% preferring someone unnamed.
Now Romney and Huckabee are tied at 22%, with the rest roughly the same as before: Palin at 18%, Gingrich at 15%, and Paul at 10%. Romney has fallen with moderates, which he dominated more than 2:1 over the next candidate three months ago. But while he had 36% with centrists then, he now has only 22%, barely more than Huckabee’s 20%. Huckabee got only 11% support from moderates in September. Those who previously favored someone else have a home, with Tim Pawlenty at 3%, Mitch Daniels at 2%, and John Thune at 1%.
PPP surveyed 400 usual Michigan Republican primary voters from December 3rd to 6th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.9%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 52%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 26%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 23%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Huckabee?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 63%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 20%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 64%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 28%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 66%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of John Engler?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 55%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 28%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Pete Hoekstra?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 42%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 16%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 42%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Terri Lynn Land?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 44%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 41%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tim Leuliette?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 3%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 14%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 83%
Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Candice Miller?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 41%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 42%
Q10 Between Mike Cox, John Engler, Pete
Hoekstra, Terri Lynn Land, Tim Leuliette, Thad
McCotter, Candice Miller, and Mike Rogers
who would you most like to see as the
Republican Senate nominee in 2012?
Mike Cox………………………………………………… 12%
John Engler…………………………………………….. 31%
Pete Hoekstra…………………………………………. 24%
Terri Lynn Land ……………………………………….. 7%
Tim Leuliette …………………………………………… 0%
Thad McCotter ………………………………………… 3%
Candice Miller …………………………………………. 5%
Mike Rogers……………………………………………. 4%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 14%
Q11 If the Republican candidates for President in
2012 were Mitch Daniels, Newt Gingrich, Mike
Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, Tim
Pawlenty, Mitt Romney, and John Thune who
would you vote for?
Mitch Daniels ………………………………………….. 2%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 15%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 22%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 18%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 10%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 3%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 22%
John Thune…………………………………………….. 1%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 7%
Q12 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 2%
Moderate………………………………………………… 27%
Conservative…………………………………………… 71%
Q13 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 49%
Man……………………………………………………….. 51%
Q14 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 10%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 26%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 38%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 26%
