Raleigh, N.C. – Robert Menendez might be the most vulnerable Democratic Senator up for reelection next year that no one’s talking about. PPP’s newest New Jersey poll finds him with an approval rating mired in the 30s and leading by only 5 points over one of his prospective 2012 opponents.
Just 37% of voters in the state approve of the job Menendez is doing to 35% who disapprove. He has awful numbers with independents, only 24% of whom approve of him to 40% who think he’s doing a poor job. And Republicans (63% disapproval) are more convinced that he’s doing a bad job than Democrats are (60% approval) that his performance has been good.
Of course the big challenge for Republicans is finding a candidate that can actually capitalize on Menendez’s weakness and that looks like it might be a difficult task. Four of the people whose names have been bandied about as candidates- Mike Doherty, Kim Guadagno, Woody Johnson, and Joseph Kyrillos- would all trail Menendez by double digits in spite of his middling approval numbers. It would be a 13 point lead over Doherty (48-35), a 14 point advantage over Guadagno (48-34), an 18 point one over Johnson (48-30), and a 19 point spread over Kyrillos (48-29).
There does look to be one potential candidate who could really make the race competitive and that’s the GOP’s nominee from 2006, Tom Kean Jr. Kean holds Menendez to a 44-39 advantage. He benefits from a 49-30 lead with independents, but he takes only 8% of the Democratic vote. He would likely need more crossover support than that to pull out a win.
“Robert Menendez’s approval numbers make it clear he could be vulnerable,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “It remains to be seen whether Republicans can field a candidate who will take advantage of that vulnerability.”
PPP surveyed 480 New Jersey voters from July 15th to 18th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.5%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Robert Menendez’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 37%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 28%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Doherty?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 7%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 76%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Kim Guadagno?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 11%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 24%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 65%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Woody Johnson?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 9%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 73%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tom Kean, Jr.?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 32%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 42%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Joseph Kyrillos?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 8%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 74%
Q7 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Democrat Robert Menendez and Republican
Mike Doherty, who would you vote for?
Robert Menendez ……………………………………. 48%
Mike Doherty…………………………………………… 35%
Undecided………………………………………………. 17%
Q8 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Democrat Robert Menendez and Republican
Kim Guadagno, who would you vote for?
Robert Menendez ……………………………………. 48%
Kim Guadagno………………………………………… 34%
Undecided………………………………………………. 18%
Q9 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Democrat Robert Menendez and Republican
Woody Johnson, who would you vote for?
Robert Menendez ……………………………………. 48%
Woody Johnson ………………………………………. 30%
Undecided………………………………………………. 22%
Q10 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Democrat Robert Menendez and Republican
Tom Kean, Jr., who would you vote for?
Robert Menendez ……………………………………. 44%
Tom Kean, Jr…………………………………………… 39%
Undecided………………………………………………. 16%
Q11 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Democrat Robert Menendez and Republican
Joseph Kyrillos, who would you vote for?
Robert Menendez ……………………………………. 48%
Joseph Kyrillos………………………………………… 29%
Undecided………………………………………………. 23%
Q12 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 39%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 53%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 9%
Q13 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 12%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 18%
Moderate………………………………………………… 36%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 22%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 12%
Q14 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%
Q15 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 46%
Republican……………………………………………… 32%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 22%
Q16 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2
White …………………………………………………….. 70%
Other……………………………………………………… 30%
Q17 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 10%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 27%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 49%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 14%
