Polls

Meek headed for Democratic nomination, GOP race close

| Tom Jensen

Header-poll-resultsRaleigh, N.C. – The Republican race for Governor in Florida remains closes headed into the final day, with Rick Scott holding a 47-40 lead that’s within the survey’s margin of error.

If Scott does indeed end up as the GOP nominee on Tuesday night it will be because Bill McCollum couldn’t keep up with conservative voters.  Scott has a 50-39 lead with them even as he trails McCollum 44-39 with moderates.  There is a major divide along age lines between the two candidates with McCollum ahead by 13 points with senior citizens and Scott up by 16 points with everyone else.  The older the electorate is on Tuesday the better McCollum’s chances of pulling it out will be.

Whoever emerges as the winner on Tuesday will have a lot of healing to do.  Both candidates generate pretty lukewarm feelings with the party base.  Scott’s favorability is 46% and McCollum’s is 38%. 

The Democratic Senate primary is looking a lot less competitive as it enters the home stretch.  Kendrick Meek has taken a broad lead with 51% to Jeff Greene’s 27%.  Meek’s 70-9 lead with African Americans is certainly a key component of his success but he’s also up 47-37 with white voters.

It may be a Pyrrhic victory for Meek on Tuesday night though.  The 57% of Democratic primary voters who approve of Charlie Crist’s work as Governor exceeds the 50% who have a favorable opinion of Meek.  He faces a very difficult road in the general election.

“It may be an early night for the Democrats,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.  “But with polling close on the Republican side it’s anyone’s guess who will emerge as the winner there.  Ultimately both of these primaries have hurt their party’s chances of winning these offices in the general election.”

PPP surveyed 324 likely Democratic primary voters and 304 likely Republican primary voters on August 21st and 22nd.  The margin of error for the Democratic survey is +/-5.4% and for the Republican survey it’s +/-5.6%.  Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

If you would like an interview regarding this release, please contact Dean Debnam at (888) 621-6988 or 919-880-4888.

Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 The Republican candidates for Governor are
Bill McCollum and Rick Scott. If the primary
was today, who would you vote for?
Bill McCollum………………………………………….. 40%
Rick Scott……………………………………………….. 47%
Undecided………………………………………………. 13%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bill McCollum?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 38%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Scott?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 46%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%

Q4 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 50%
Man……………………………………………………….. 50%

Q5 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 14%
White …………………………………………………….. 80%
African-American …………………………………….. 3%
Other……………………………………………………… 3%

Q6 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1 now. If
you are 30 to 45, press 2. If you are 46 to 65,
press 3. If older, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 8%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 20%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 40%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 32%

Q7 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 5%
Moderate………………………………………………… 23%
Conservative…………………………………………… 72%

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