Raleigh, N.C. – Chris Shays is Republicans’ strongest candidate for a potential upset in the Connecticut Senate race because of his appeal to independents and Democrats. But to give his party that shot at taking over Joe Lieberman’s long-held seat, he will have to get through Linda McMahon. And right now, last year’s failed Senate nominee has a stranglehold on the early GOP nomination race. She has over half the vote (54%) in a four-person field, with Shays way back at 19%, Rob Simmons at 15%, and Jason McCoy at 2%. Even if Simmons chooses to stay out of the fray, Shays would benefit little, trailing McMahon 60-27.
Connecticut’s Republican voters are much more moderate than most other states’. More (27%) say they are centrist than very conservative (25%). McMahon has a 67-point advantage with the furthest-right voters, and leads by more than 30 points with the 41% plurality who say they are only somewhat conservative. With Simmons on the slate, McMahon even leads by three points with moderates, and Shays jumps to only a four-point lead in Simmons’ absence. To come from way behind to win, Shays will have to seriously contest McMahon with the center-right and dominate with moderates.
Mitt Romney needs to employ the same formula to beat Rick Perry for the presidential nod, but because of his regional ties and the Nutmeg State GOP’s ideological temperateness, he is in solid shape. He earns 25% to Perry’s 18%, Newt Gingrich’s, Herman Cain’s, and Ron Paul’s 10%, and Michele Bachmann’s 8%.
As on the Republican side, it is clear who the Democrats’ strongest Senate candidate would be: Chris Murphy. But while he will not have to claw from behind to win the nomination like Shays, he will have to protect against Susan Bysiewicz. Murphy has only a 39-33 lead over her at the moment. Bysiewicz actually leads by eight points with the most liberal voters (19% of the electorate), but Murphy by 20 with the somewhat liberal plurality. It is a tie with the 28% who say they are moderate.
PPP surveyed 400 usual Connecticut Democratic primary voters and 400 Republican primary voters from September 22nd to 25th. The margin of error for each survey is +/-4.9%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Republican Primary Toplines
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Michele Bachmann?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 45%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 53%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 37%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Perry?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 51%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 32%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 59%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 29%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Linda McMahon?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 69%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 21%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Christopher Shays?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 36%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 29%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 35%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rob Simmons?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 38%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 21%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 41%
Q9 If the Republican candidates for President
were Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt
Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Gary Johnson, Ron
Paul, Rick Perry, Mitt Romney, and Rick
Santorum, who would you vote for?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 8%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 10%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 10%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 3%
Gary Johnson …………………………………………. 1%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 10%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 18%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 25%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 3%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 12%
Q10 If the Republican Presidential race came down
to just Rick Perry and Mitt Romney, who would
you vote for?
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 36%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q11 If the Republican candidates for Senate next
year were Jason McCoy, Linda McMahon,
Christopher Shays, and Rob Simmons, who
would you vote for?
Jason McCoy ………………………………………….. 2%
Linda McMahon ………………………………………. 54%
Christopher Shays …………………………………… 19%
Rob Simmons …………………………………………. 15%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 10%
Q12 If the Republican candidates for Senate next
year were just Jason McCoy, Linda McMahon,
and Christopher Shays, who would you vote
for?
Jason McCoy ………………………………………….. 3%
Linda McMahon ………………………………………. 60%
Christopher Shays …………………………………… 27%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 10%
Q13 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 2%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 5%
Moderate………………………………………………… 27%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 41%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 25%
Q14 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 43%
Man……………………………………………………….. 57%
Q15 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 6%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 27%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 41%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 26%
Democratic Primary Toplines
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Susan Bysiewicz?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 38%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 30%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 33%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Chris Murphy?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 49%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 32%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of William Tong?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 6%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 25%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 69%
Q4 If the Democratic candidates for Senate were
Susan Bysiewicz, Chris Murphy, and William
Tong, who would you vote for?
Susan Bysiewicz……………………………………… 33%
Chris Murphy ………………………………………….. 39%
William Tong …………………………………………… 8%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 19%
Q5 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 19%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 40%
Moderate………………………………………………… 28%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 10%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 4%
Q6 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 57%
Man……………………………………………………….. 43%
Q7 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 83%
Other……………………………………………………… 17%
Q8 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 6%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 46%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 24%
