Raleigh, N.C. – In a look ahead to a possible 2012 Washington gubernatorial matchup, Attorney General Rob McKenna, a Republican, currently leads State Senate Majority Leader Lisa Brown, a Democrat, by almost 20 points, 47% to 29%, with 24% still undecided more than two years out. Independents break for McKenna, 50-19, and he gets 87% of the GOP base, to Brown’s 60% of the Democrats.
Brown’s poor standing can be partially explained by the fact that almost no one has heard of her. 81% have no opinion; among those who do, she is down 7-12. Comparatively, McKenna is an entity to over 55%, and they break 36-20 in his favor.
Brown may also be hurting from current governor and partymate Christine Gregoire’s own relative unpopularity. Only 39% of the state’s voters approve of how Gregoire is doing in office, to 52% who disapprove. That puts her at one point above the median approval-disapproval margin among the 26 governors PPP has polled this year.
By a 49-30 margin, however, Washington voters still have a very favorable opinion of their previous governor, Gary Locke, now Obama’s Commerce Secretary. That compares favorably not only to Gregoire’s standing but to other current Cabinet secretaries who are recent governors. In April, Janet Napolitano posted a 41-48 mark in Arizona, and in May, Tom Vilsack showed a 37-36 in Iowa.
Voters are split on Initiative 1098, which would create a state income tax for those earning over $200,000, while lowering property taxes and certain business taxes. 41% both support and oppose the measure, with 18% undecided.
Even though yesterday’s release showed 47% of Washingtonians opposing the health care law (with 45% supporting it), only 43% support McKenna’s lawsuit seeking to block the law from being enacted, to 45% who do not want his suit to succeed.
PPP surveyed 1,204 Washington voters from July 27th to August 1st. The survey’s margin of error is +/-2.8%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
If you would like an interview regarding this release, please contact Dean Debnam at (888) 621-6988 or 919-880-4888.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Initiative Measure No. 1098 concerns
establishing a state income tax and reducing
other taxes. This measure would tax “adjusted
gross income” above $200,000 (individuals)
and $400,000 (joint-filers), reduce state
property tax levies, reduce certain business
and occupation taxes, and direct any increased
revenues to education and health. Should this
measure be enacted into law?
Yes ……………………………………………………….. 41%
No …………………………………………………………. 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Christine Gregoire’s job performance?
Approve…………….. 39%
Disapprove………… 52%
Not Sure……………. 9%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Lisa Brown?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 7%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 12%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 81%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rob McKenna?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 36%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 20%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 45%
Q5 If the candidates for Governor in 2012 were
Democrat Lisa Brown and Republican Rob
McKenna, who would you vote for?
Lisa Brown……………………………………………… 29%
Rob McKenna …………………………………………. 47%
Undecided………………………………………………. 24%
Q6 Do you support or oppose Attorney General
Rob McKenna’s lawsuit to block the health
care law?
Support ………………………………………………….. 43%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Gary Locke?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 49%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 30%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 21%
Q8 Who did you vote for President last year?
John McCain…………………………………………… 41%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 51%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 8%
Q9 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 24%
Moderate………………………………………………… 41%
Conservative…………………………………………… 35%
Q10 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 51%
Man……………………………………………………….. 49%
Q11 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If you are a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 36%
Republican……………………………………………… 29%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 35%
Q12 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 91%
Other……………………………………………………… 9%
Q13 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1 now. If
you are 30 to 45, press 2. If you are 46 to 65,
press 3. If older, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 6%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 25%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 45%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 24%
