Raleigh, N.C. – The most likely match up for Governor of Washington next year looks like it would be a barn burner, with Republican Attorney General Rob McKenna starting out with just a 40-38 lead over Democratic Congressman Jay Inslee. With 23% of Democrats and only 13% of Republicans undecided at this point that looks like a sheer toss up.
The main reason McKenna is ahead of Inslee at this point is slightly higher name recognition. 60% of voters know McKenna well enough to have formed an opinion about him, while that is true for only 51% when it comes to Inslee. The two have similar net favorability ratings with Inslee at +9 (30/21) and McKenna at +8 (34/26).
McKenna and Inslee would clearly be their party’s two strongest candidates. Christine Gregoire remains quite unpopular with 38% of voters approving of her to 48% who disapprove. She would trail McKenna 49-40 in a hypothetical contest.
Likewise Congressman Dave Reichert would not be nearly as strong as McKenna. His statewide favorability is 25/36 and he trails Inslee by a 42-36 margin and even Gregoire by a 45-41 spread.
“Assuming that Gregoire doesn’t run again and the players end up being Inslee and McKenna the race for Governor in Washington next year looks like a sheer toss up,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “With the races for Senate and President in the state next year not likely to be competitive this appears to be where the action is.”
PPP found yesterday that Maria Cantwell had a 50/36 approval rating and led five prospective Republican opponents by double digits. Numbers on the Presidential race in the state will be released tomorrow.
PPP surveyed 1,098 Washington voters from May 12th to 15th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.0%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Christine Gregoire’s job performance?
Approve…………….. 38%
Disapprove………… 48%
Not sure ……………. 14%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jay Inslee?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 30%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 21%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 49%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rob McKenna?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 34%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 26%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 40%
Q4 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Republican Rob McKenna and Democrat
Christine Gregoire, who would you vote for?
Rob McKenna …………………………………………. 49%
Christine Gregoire……………………………………. 40%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%
Q5 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Republican Rob McKenna and Democrat Jay
Inslee, who would you vote for?
Rob McKenna …………………………………………. 40%
Jay Inslee……………………………………………….. 38%
Undecided………………………………………………. 22%
Q6 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Republican Dave Reichert and Democrat
Christine Gregoire, who would you vote for?
Dave Reichert …………………………………………. 41%
Christine Gregoire……………………………………. 45%
Undecided………………………………………………. 14%
Q7 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Republican Dave Reichert and Democrat Jay
Inslee, who would you vote for?
Dave Reichert …………………………………………. 36%
Jay Inslee……………………………………………….. 42%
Undecided………………………………………………. 22%
Q8 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 39%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 53%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 8%
Q9 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 11%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 22%
Moderate………………………………………………… 30%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 21%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 16%
Q10 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%
Q11 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 39%
Republican……………………………………………… 30%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 31%
Q12 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 87%
Other……………………………………………………… 13%
Q13 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 10%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 46%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
