Raleigh, N.C. – Pat McCrory is presumed to be a shoo-in for a rematch with Bev Perdue next fall, and no other Republicans have publicly made moves to knock him from his perch. But despite his recent overtures to the Tea Party, his almost twenty years of moderate politics before then make him still somewhat vulnerable to a strong challenge from his right.
McCrory has a floor of 40% in a two-way generic primary, but 46% of North Carolina GOP primary voters say they would prefer a generic “Tea Party conservative.” The ideal right-winger leads by 31 points with the furthest-right voters, and McCrory by 32 with centrists. But those moderates comprise only 14% of the electorate, while those who call themselves “very conservative” are a 43% plurality. Bringing things back McCrory’s way is his 50-37 lead with the 36% who place themselves between the two groups.
Against two still little-known possible conservative opponents, McCrory would clean up at this point. He would lead freshman Rep. Renee Ellmers by a 61-10 margin, and Agriculture Commissioner Steve Troxler by a 51-15 mark. In a race between all three, McCrory would win 52-19-10 over Troxler and Ellmers. In all three variations, even the most conservative voters strongly prefer McCrory, indicating it is all about name recognition.
Indeed, despite her high-profile, surprise win over former 2nd-District Congressman Bob Etheridge last fall, 68% of these dedicated GOP faithful are still unfamiliar with Ellmers, and the same for Troxler, who has served statewide since 2005. The two have identical 19-13 favorability ratings, compared to McCrory’s 51-11.
“Pat McCrory could have a lot of trouble with someone running to his right as the Republican electorate gets more and more conservative,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “The question is just whether someone will step up.”
PPP surveyed 400 usual North Carolina Republican primary voters from September 1st to 4th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.9%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Renee Ellmers?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 19%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 13%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 68%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Pat McCrory?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 51%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 11%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 38%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Steve Troxler?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 19%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 13%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 68%
Q4 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Renee Ellmers and Pat McCrory, who would
you vote for?
Renee Ellmers ………………………………………… 10%
Pat McCrory……………………………………………. 61%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 29%
Q5 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Pat McCrory and Steve Troxler, who would you
vote for?
Pat McCrory……………………………………………. 51%
Steve Troxler…………………………………………… 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 34%
Q6 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Renee Ellmers, Pat McCrory, and Steve
Troxler, who would you vote for?
Renee Ellmers ………………………………………… 10%
Pat McCrory……………………………………………. 52%
Steve Troxler…………………………………………… 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q7 Generally speaking, would you like the
Republican candidate for Governor next year to
be Pat McCrory or a more conservative Tea
Party challenger?
Pat McCrory……………………………………………. 40%
More conservative Tea Party challenger ……… 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q8 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 2%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 4%
Moderate………………………………………………… 14%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 36%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 43%
Q9 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 49%
Man……………………………………………………….. 51%
Q10 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 8%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 28%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 42%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 22%
Q11
252………………………………………………………… 9%
336………………………………………………………… 22%
704………………………………………………………… 24%
828………………………………………………………… 13%
910………………………………………………………… 13%
919………………………………………………………… 18%
