Raleigh, N.C. – North Carolina Governor Bev Perdue continues to slide with the public as she tangles with the Republican legislature. Her deficit to 2008 and likely 2012 opponent Pat McCrory is yet a bit larger than in PPP’s previous poll of the state in mid-February. Fortunately for her but unfortunately for the Democratic Party, which has held the governor’s mansion since 1993, only one other possible nominee would do significantly better against McCrory, Attorney General Roy Cooper, but he still lags.
Perdue’s job performance rating has taken another hit over the last month. Still with 30% approval, the same as last month, 52% of North Carolinians now disapprove, versus 48% a month ago. Only half of her partymates can say they like what she has been doing, with 30% disapproving (up from 45-28 in February). At the same time, though, she has not unexpectedly regressed with Republicans (to 77% disapproval from 69%) and independents, who give her a 21-53 mark, versus 30-52 in the previous poll.
McCrory is still pretty popular, if not very well known, with a 34-22 favorability margin. Republicans have boosted their opinions of him, from 43% to 52% positive in a month. He now has a majority against Perdue, 50-36, up a hair from 49-37 last time. Perdue can still only get 61% of her party’s support, with McCrory attracting almost a quarter (23%) of Perdue’s base, which comprises 45% of the electorate. McCrory locks up the GOP (38% of voters), and independents side with him by the same 15-point margin as last month. Perdue can take a little solace in that more Democrats and independents are undecided than Republicans, but she has to get her base in line to win re-election.
A Democratic primary battle is unlikely, but if Perdue were to not run again, Cooper would start out trailing McCrory, 43-35. State Senator Dan Blue and Lt. Gov. Walter Dalton lag by similar 48-28 and 47-27 margins. These major statewide figures have even lower profiles than McCrory. Cooper is a non-entity to 56% of voters, Blue to 67%, and Dalton to 69%.
“Bev Perdue starts at a disadvantage for reelection but so would any other Democrat,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “It’s looking like this office will be a very tough hold for the party next year.”
PPP surveyed 584 North Carolina voters from March 17th to 20th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.1%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Bev
Perdue’s job performance?
Approve…………….. 30%
Disapprove………… 52%
Not sure ……………. 18%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Dan Blue?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 13%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 20%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 67%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Roy Cooper?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 27%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 56%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Walter Dalton?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 13%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 69%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Pat McCrory?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 34%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 44%
Q6 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Democrat Bev Perdue and Republican Pat
McCrory, who would you vote for?
Bev Perdue…………………………………………….. 36%
Pat McCrory……………………………………………. 50%
Undecided………………………………………………. 14%
Q7 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Democrat Dan Blue and Republican Pat
McCrory, who would you vote for?
Dan Blue………………………………………………… 28%
Pat McCrory……………………………………………. 48%
Undecided………………………………………………. 24%
Q8 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Democrat Roy Cooper and Republican Pat
McCrory, who would you vote for?
Roy Cooper…………………………………………….. 35%
Pat McCrory……………………………………………. 43%
Undecided………………………………………………. 22%
Q9 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Democrat Walter Dalton and Republican Pat
McCrory, who would you vote for?
Walter Dalton ………………………………………….. 27%
Pat McCrory……………………………………………. 47%
Undecided………………………………………………. 26%
Q10 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 9%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 16%
Moderate………………………………………………… 28%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 23%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 24%
Q11 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%
Q12 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 45%
Republican……………………………………………… 38%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 17%
Q13 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 75%
African-American …………………………………….. 21%
Other……………………………………………………… 4%
Q14 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 16%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 26%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 38%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
Q15
252………………………………………………………… 15%
336………………………………………………………… 20%
704………………………………………………………… 17%
828………………………………………………………… 17%
910………………………………………………………… 11%
919………………………………………………………… 20%
