Raleigh, N.C. – Despite his generally moderate image as Charlotte’s seven-term mayor, few North Carolina Republicans (14%) see Pat McCrory as being too liberal for their taste, while a 53% majority see his views as “about right.” Indeed, a solid 47% of his party’s usual primary voters have a favorable opinion of him, to only 12% with a negative view. But almost as many (41%) have no opinion about him as have a positive one, even after he ran statewide just over two years ago, and 26% are also not sure what they consider his ideology to be.
So while McCrory’s base is seemingly satisfied with his worldview, his return to relative anonymity certainly leaves room for a redefinition of his issue positions if someone to his right were to challenge him for the 2012 gubernatorial nod. No establishment Republican like McCrory, no matter how conservative, can feel secure in locking up the GOP’s nomination in this Tea-Party climate. When asked how they would vote in a hypothetical gubernatorial primary next spring between McCrory and a more conservative challenger, 43% choose the latter and only 29% opt for their 2008 nominee. Nearly as many, 28%, are not sure how they would vote.
“Pat McCrory winning the Republican nomination for Governor is being treated as inevitable right now,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But the same could have been said of Mike Castle, Lisa Murkowski, Sue Lowden, and Trey Grayson, all establishment Republicans who ended up losing to Tea Party challengers last year. There is some appetite among Republicans for a nominee further right than McCrory, the question is just whether someone serious will challenge him to give voters that option.”
In the presidential contest, Mitt Romney has jumped into a second-place tie with Newt Gingrich, at 18%, but both still trail last month’s returning leader, Mike Huckabee, who has declined from 27% to 24%. Sarah Palin remains at 16%, now in fourth instead of third place. In January, Romney had only 11% of the vote. Way back, with no more than a third of the frontrunners’ support, are Ron Paul (6%), Tim Pawlenty (5%), Mitch Daniels (2%), and John Thune (1%), who has since declared he will not run for president. 11% are undecided or favor an unnamed option.
PPP surveyed 400 usual North Carolina Republican primary voters from February 16th to 21st. The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.9%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 55%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 25%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Huckabee?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 68%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 69%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 24%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 56%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 24%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Pat McCrory?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 47%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 12%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 41%
Q6 If the Republican candidates for President next
year were Mitch Daniels, Newt Gingrich, Mike
Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, Tim
Pawlenty, Mitt Romney, and John Thune who
would you vote for?
Mitch Daniels ………………………………………….. 2%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 18%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 24%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 16%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 6%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 5%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 18%
John Thune…………………………………………….. 1%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 11%
Q7 Do you think Pat McCrory is too liberal, too
conservative, or about right?
Too liberal ………………………………………………. 14%
Too conservative……………………………………… 7%
About right ……………………………………………… 53%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 26%
Q8 If the Republican primary for governor next
year were between Pat McCrory and a more
conservative challenger, who would you vote
for?
Pat McCrory……………………………………………. 29%
More conservative challenger ……………………. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 28%
Q9 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 48%
Man……………………………………………………….. 52%
Q10 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 6%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 30%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 40%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 24%
