Raleigh, N.C.– PPP’s new poll of the North Carolina
Governor’s race finds Republican Pat McCrory leading Democrat Walter Dalton
47-37, with Libertarian Barbara Howe at 5%. This is the biggest lead McCrory’s
had in a PPP survey since Dalton won the Democratic nomination in May.
The key for McCrory is that the attacks on him over the last four months
just haven’t done much to affect his image. He has a +12 net favorability
rating with 46% of voters giving him positive marks to 34% who have a negative
opinion. That’s not much different from May when he was at +13 (41/28).
McCrory’s lead continues to be driven by two major factors: a high level of
crossover support from Democrats, and a huge advantage with independents.
McCrory’s winning 19% of the Democratic vote while losing only 7% of
Republicans to Dalton. And he’s up by a 52/22 margin with independents.
The good news for Democrats is that McCrory’s strength at the top of the
ticket isn’t hindering them too much further down the ballot. In three Council
of State races with Democratic incumbents we find all of them winning. June
Atkinson is up 44-34 on John Tedesco for Superintendent of Public Instruction,
Elaine Marshall’s up 41-34 on Ed Goodwin for Secretary of State, and Wayne
Goodwin’s up 41-36 on Mike Causey for Insurance Commissioner. In the one race
with a Republican incumbent that we looked at this month Labor Commissioner
Cherie Berry leads challenger John Brooks 41-37.
The most important state race this year besides Governor may actually be for
the Supreme Court. In that nonpartisan race the de facto Democratic candidate,
Sam Ervin IV, leads the Republican incumbent Paul Newby by a 31-23 margin. The
46% of voters undecided is not terribly surprising in a race where voters can’t
just go on party labels. Ervin is winning 44% of Democrats while only 37% of
Republicans are currently committed to Newby.
PPP surveyed 981
likely North Carolina voters from September 27th to 30th.
The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.1%. This poll was not paid for or
authorized by any campaign or political organization.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Walter Dalton?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 29%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 38%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Pat McCrory?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 46%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%
Q3 The candidates for Governor are Democrat
Walter Dalton, Republican Pat McCrory, and
Libertarian Barbara Howe. If the election was
today, who would you vote for?
Walter Dalton ………………………………………….. 37%
Pat McCrory……………………………………………. 47%
Barbara Howe…………………………………………. 5%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%
Q4 The candidates for Secretary of State are
Democrat Elaine Marshall and Republican Ed
Goodwin. If the election was today, who would
you vote for?
Elaine Marshall ……………………………………….. 41%
Ed Goodwin ……………………………………………. 34%
Undecided………………………………………………. 24%
Q5 The candidates for Superintendent of Public
Instruction are Democrat June Atkinson and
Republican John Tedesco. If the election was
today, who would you vote for?
June Atkinson …………………………………………. 44%
John Tedesco………………………………………….. 34%
Undecided………………………………………………. 22%
Q6 The candidates for Labor Commissioner are
Democrat John Brooks and Republican Cherie
Berry. If the election was today, who would you
vote for?
John Brooks……………………………………………. 37%
Cherie Berry……………………………………………. 41%
Undecided………………………………………………. 22%
Q7 The candidates for Insurance Commissioner
are Democrat Wayne Goodwin and Republican
Mike Causey. If the election was today, who
would you vote for?
Wayne Goodwin ……………………………………… 41%
Mike Causey …………………………………………… 36%
Undecided………………………………………………. 23%
Q8 The candidates for Supreme Court are Sam
Ervin IV and Paul Newby. If the election was
today, who would you vote for?
Sam Ervin IV…………………………………………… 31%
Paul Newby…………………………………………….. 23%
Undecided………………………………………………. 46%
Q9 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Richard Burr’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .29%
Disapprove…………. .30%
Not sure …………….. .41%
Q10 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Kay
Hagan’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .35%
Disapprove…………. .37%
Not sure …………….. .28%
Q11 Generally speaking, if there was an election
today, would you vote for Democrat Kay Hagan
or her Republican opponent?
Kay Hagan…………. .46%
Republican
opponent……………..43%
Not sure …………….. .11%
Q12 Do you approve or disapprove of the job the
General Assembly is doing?
Approve …………….. .16%
Disapprove…………. .54%
Not sure …………….. .30%
Q13 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of the Democrats in the North Carolina
Legislature?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 35%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%
Q14 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of the Republicans in the North Carolina
Legislature?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 33%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%
Q15 If there was an election for the state legislature
today, would you vote Democratic or
Republican?
Democratic……………………………………………… 46%
Republican……………………………………………… 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q16 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 13%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 14%
Moderate………………………………………………… 30%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 24%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 19%
Q17 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 56%
Man……………………………………………………….. 44%
Q18 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 48%
Republican……………………………………………… 34%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 19%
Q19 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 72%
African-American …………………………………….. 22%
Other……………………………………………………… 6%
Q20 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 15%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 22%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 43%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
Q21 Area Code
252………………………………………………………… 12%
336………………………………………………………… 23%
704………………………………………………………… 21%
828………………………………………………………… 11%
910………………………………………………………… 12%
919………………………………………………………… 20%
