Raleigh, N.C. – Governor Bev Perdue’s approval numbers continue to trend in a positive direction. Her 37% approval rating in PPP’s latest monthly poll of North Carolina is the highest measured since she received a thumb’s up from 41% in April of 2009, almost two and a half years ago, just a few months into her term. With 48% disapproving, her -11 spread is her best in two months, when it was also -11, and other than a -9 margin last December, also the best since April 2009, when 40% disapproved (+1), the last time she was in positive territory.
While her job performance marks have ticked upward since last month, Perdue’s standing against her likely 2012 opponent Pat McCrory has not. She again trails by eight points, 47-39, largely because she is still struggling to get up to par with her own party. The governor wins the support of only two-thirds of Democrats, a fifth of whom defect to McCrory. That compares to the 88-9 margin reported in the 2008 exit polls. Republicans remain almost as united as they were then, 83-6 behind McCrory. Though 22% of them remain undecided, more than Democrats (13%) or Republicans (11%), independents are actually closer, siding 43-35 for McCrory, than three years ago (59-37).
The good news for Perdue is that her 77-12 advantage with African Americans is bound to revert to a more usual 90%-plus level in the end. It was 95-3 in 2008. If she gets that level of support again, she would halve her deficit to 52-48. Her weakness with conservative white Democrats is still her biggest concern, but her populism of late, opposing the Republican cuts to education, has served her well to start closing the gap.
“Bev Perdue’s still facing an up hill battle for reelection,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But what was persistently a double digit gap against Pat McCrory earlier in the year is now down to the 6-8 point range. It’s going to be tough but her chances now are looking better than they were in January.”
PPP surveyed 780 North Carolina voters from August 4th to 7th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.5%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Bev
Perdue’s job performance?
Approve…………….. 37%
Disapprove………… 48%
Not sure ……………. 15%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Pat McCrory?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 34%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 26%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 40%
Q3 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Democrat Bev Perdue and Republican Pat
McCrory, who would you vote for?
Bev Perdue…………………………………………….. 39%
Pat McCrory……………………………………………. 47%
Undecided………………………………………………. 14%
Q4 Do you have more faith in Governor Perdue or
Legislative Republicans to lead the state?
Governor Perdue …………………………………….. 44%
Legislative Republicans ……………………………. 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q5 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 7%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 16%
Moderate………………………………………………… 28%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 30%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 19%
Q6 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 54%
Man……………………………………………………….. 46%
Q7 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 48%
Republican……………………………………………… 35%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 18%
Q8 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 74%
African-American …………………………………….. 22%
Other……………………………………………………… 4%
Q9 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 10%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 26%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 42%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 22%
Q10
252………………………………………………………… 11%
336………………………………………………………… 17%
704………………………………………………………… 21%
828………………………………………………………… 14%
910………………………………………………………… 13%
919………………………………………………………… 24%
