Raleigh, N.C. – For all the negative ads and the threatened lawsuits over them in the last month, there has been essentially no change in the North Carolina gubernatorial race. Walter Dalton came out of his primary victory with a big bump, pulling to within six points of frontrunner Pat McCrory (46-40) when PPP polled the race in mid-May. Now he trails by seven (47-40).
There are signs, however, that Dalton has more room to grow than does McCrory. Dalton lagged by 23 points with independents in May, but only 16 points now. And the undecided lean Democratic. Two-thirds of them are women, they are more heavily minority than the overall electorate, and they voted 2:1 for President Obama over John McCain in 2008.
The continuing problem for Dalton is the defection of conservative Democrats. Dalton’s 10% of the GOP vote is roughly what Bev Perdue got in 2008, but McCrory’s 18% of Democrats is twice what he pulled four years ago. Obama has the same problem, so Dalton is not alone.
Dalton and Obama also both show weakness currently with black voters, but history suggests that, unlike with rural white Democrats, that will not be the case in November. Dalton gets only 68% to McCrory’s 20% of African Americans, not much worse than Obama’s own 76-20 lead over Romney. If Dalton had 95% of the black vote, as Perdue did, and the rest of voters fell proportionately to where they are now, McCrory would lead by less than a point.
McCrory’s advantage continues to be built on name recognition. As Dalton has gotten better known to voters, his standing has increased, and it could only continue to do so. Among voters who have an opinion of both candidates right now, whether positive or negative, Dalton actually leads by four points.
“Pat McCrory remains the favorite but this race is closer than it was three months ago,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Walter Dalton’s post-primary bounce has held up over the last month.”
PPP surveyed 810 North Carolina voters from June 7th to 10th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.4%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Walter Dalton?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 28%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 28%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 44%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Pat McCrory?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 44%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 30%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 26%
Q3 The candidates for Governor are Democrat
Walter Dalton and Republican Pat McCrory. If
the election was today, who would you vote
for?
Walter Dalton ………………………………………….. 40%
Pat McCrory……………………………………………. 47%
Undecided………………………………………………. 13%
Q4 Do you view Walter Dalton as being a liberal,
moderate, or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 29%
Moderate………………………………………………… 34%
Conservative…………………………………………… 9%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 28%
Q5 Do you view Pat McCrory as being a liberal,
moderate, or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 9%
Moderate………………………………………………… 27%
Conservative…………………………………………… 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%
Q6 The candidates for State Treasurer are
Democrat Janet Cowell and Republican Steve
Royal. If the election was today, who would you
vote for?
Janet Cowell …………………………………………… 34%
Steve Royal ……………………………………………. 33%
Undecided………………………………………………. 33%
Q7 The candidates for Agriculture Commissioner
are Democrat Walter Smith and Republican
Steve Troxler. If the election was today, who
would you vote for?
Walter Smith …………………………………………… 31%
Steve Troxler…………………………………………… 45%
Undecided………………………………………………. 25%
Q8 The candidates for State Auditor are Democrat
Beth Wood and Republican Debra Goldman. If
the election was today, who would you vote
for?
Beth Wood……………………………………………… 36%
Debra Goldman ………………………………………. 36%
Undecided………………………………………………. 29%
Q9 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 46%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 46%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 8%
Q10 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 13%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 13%
Moderate………………………………………………… 26%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 28%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 21%
Q11 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 54%
Man……………………………………………………….. 46%
Q12 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 44%
Republican……………………………………………… 36%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 20%
Q13 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 73%
African-American …………………………………….. 22%
Other……………………………………………………… 4%
Q14 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 14%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 28%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 38%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
Q15 Area Code
252………………………………………………………… 11%
336………………………………………………………… 21%
704………………………………………………………… 20%
828………………………………………………………… 12%
910………………………………………………………… 14%
919………………………………………………………… 23%