Raleigh, N.C. – The presence of Libertarian Barbara Howe on the gubernatorial ballot has no effect on Republican Pat McCrory’s lead over Democrat Walter Dalton. McCrory sported a seven-point (47-40) lead in last month’s PPP poll of the North Carolina gubernatorial race, and he now leads by the same margin (43-36), despite the right-leaning third-party candidate’s 9%.
That is because Howe is surprisingly pulling more support from Democrats (9%) than Republicans (5%); Democrats make up over 45% of the electorate. Howe also takes 14% of independents, and essentially none of them are potential McCrory voters. Last month, McCrory led 47-31 head-to-head with unaffiliated voters; now he leads 47-25. Normally Libertarian candidates, like Gary Johnson on the presidential ballot, dip more into conservative vote pools than liberal ones.
“Pat McCrory has led by 6-7 points for three months now,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But the undecideds lean strongly Democratic so the race should tighten up between now and November.”
Incumbents are doing pretty well in three settled Council of State races, but there are more than twice as many undecided voters as in the gubernatorial battle. Democratic Treasurer Janet Cowell leads no-name challenger Steve Royal by three points (38-35), hardly changed from last month’s 34-33 result. Democratic Auditor Beth Wood leads Wake County School Board member Debra Goldman by the same spread (39-36), a slight uptick from a 36-all tie in June. Wood is up 16 points in the 919 area code, which includes Wake County. Finally, Republican Agriculture Commissioner Steve Troxler has a large 12-point lead over Democratic challenger Walter Smith (46-34), much the same as in June (45-31).
Voters are not happy about the budget the General Assembly passed over Governor Bev Perdue’s veto. 24% support it and 46% oppose it. Those are, however, slightly better numbers than for the budget they passed last year (20-47). The difference is that Republicans are slightly on board (37-30), while even they opposed last year’s incarnation (26-35). Independents are more down now (21-47 vs. 26-46).
PPP surveyed 775 North Carolina voters from July 5th to 8th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.5%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Walter Dalton?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 25%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 26%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 49%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Pat McCrory?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 40%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 30%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 29%
Q3 The candidates for Governor are Democrat
Walter Dalton, Republican Pat McCrory, and
Libertarian Barbara Howe. If the election was
today, who would you vote for?
Walter Dalton ………………………………………….. 36%
Pat McCrory……………………………………………. 43%
Barbara Howe…………………………………………. 9%
Undecided………………………………………………. 12%
Q4 The candidates for State Treasurer are
Democrat Janet Cowell and Republican Steve
Royal. If the election was today, who would you
vote for?
Janet Cowell …………………………………………… 38%
Steve Royal ……………………………………………. 35%
Undecided………………………………………………. 27%
Q5 The candidates for Agriculture Commissioner
are Democrat Walter Smith and Republican
Steve Troxler. If the election was today, who
would you vote for?
Walter Smith …………………………………………… 34%
Steve Troxler…………………………………………… 46%
Undecided………………………………………………. 20%
Q6 The candidates for State Auditor are Democrat
Beth Wood and Republican Debra Goldman. If
the election was today, who would you vote
for?
Beth Wood……………………………………………… 39%
Debra Goldman ………………………………………. 36%
Undecided………………………………………………. 25%
Q7 Do you approve or disapprove of the job the
General Assembly is doing?
Approve …………….. .22%
Disapprove…………. .52%
Not sure …………….. .25%
Q8 Do you support or oppose the budget the
General Assembly passed this year?
Support ………………………………………………….. 24%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 30%
Q9 Do you support or oppose the fracking bill the
General Assembly passed this year?
Support ………………………………………………….. 28%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 31%
Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of the Democrats in the North Carolina
Legislature?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 36%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q11 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of the Republicans in the North Carolina
Legislature?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 36%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q12 If there was an election for the state legislature
today, would you vote Democratic or
Republican?
Democratic……………………………………………… 45%
Republican……………………………………………… 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q13 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 48%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 46%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 6%
Q14 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 12%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 17%
Moderate………………………………………………… 28%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 24%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 20%
Q15 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 56%
Man……………………………………………………….. 44%
Q16 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 46%
Republican……………………………………………… 34%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 21%
Q17 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 73%
African-American …………………………………….. 21%
Other……………………………………………………… 6%
Q18 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 10%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 26%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 44%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
Q19 Area Code
252………………………………………………………… 16%
336………………………………………………………… 16%
704………………………………………………………… 18%
828………………………………………………………… 13%
910………………………………………………………… 14%
919………………………………………………………… 22%
