Raleigh, N.C. –
PPP’s newest North Carolina poll finds Pat McCrory’s lead in the Governor’s
race holding steady. He’s at 47% to 37% for Walter Dalton with Libertarian
Barbara Howe at 5%. Those numbers are exactly identical to what they were two
weeks ago.
McCrory continues to be the most popular politician in the state, with a
47/31 favorability rating. Those numbers are far better than the sitting
Governor or either Senator has. McCrory leads by a greater than 2:1 margin
among independents, 52-25. He’s also taking 18% of the Democratic vote from
Dalton while losing just 7% of Republicans.
Incumbents in the other Council of State races appear to be favored for
reelection right now, although some of those contests are pretty close. Auditor
Beth Wood leads Republican challenger Debra Goldman 40-36 and Treasurer Janet
Cowell leads her GOP foe Steve Royal 41-36. Republican Agriculture Commissioner
Steve Troxler looks like a shoo in for reelection with 45% to 35% for
Democratic challenger Walter Smith.
The closest statewide race could end up being the open seat contest for
Lieutenant Governor. There Republican Dan Forest leads Democrat Linda Coleman
38-37. This is the fourth PPP poll of the contest, and all four of them have
found the candidates within two points of each other. It’s likely to be an
extremely close contest.
In the North Carolina Supreme Court race Sam Ervin IV continues to lead with
32% to 24% for incumbent Paul Newby. But the main story in the nonpartisan race
is the undecideds- 44% of voters are undecided without having party cues to
rely on.
The picture surrounding the North Carolina General Assembly is very similar
to two weeks ago. The Legislature is quite unpopular, with a 17% approval
rating to 49% of voters who disapprove of them. Democrats lead the generic
legislative ballot 45/43, a massive shift from 2010 when the GOP was up by 11
points on that measure.
PPP surveyed 1,084 likely
North Carolina voters from October 12th to 14th. The margin of error
for the survey is +/-3.0%. This poll was not
paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys
are conducted through automated telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Walter Dalton?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 29%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 35%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Pat McCrory?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 47%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 31%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 22%
Q3 The candidates for Governor are Democrat
Walter Dalton, Republican Pat McCrory, and
Libertarian Barbara Howe. If the election was
today, who would you vote for?
Walter Dalton ………………………………………….. 37%
Pat McCrory……………………………………………. 47%
Barbara Howe…………………………………………. 5%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%
Q4 The candidates for Lieutenant Governor are
Democrat Linda Coleman and Republican Dan
Forest. If the election was today, who would
you vote for?
Linda Coleman………………………………………… 37%
Dan Forest ……………………………………………… 38%
Undecided………………………………………………. 26%
Q5 The candidates for State Treasurer are
Democrat Janet Cowell and Republican Steve
Royal. If the election was today, who would you
vote for?
Janet Cowell …………………………………………… 41%
Steve Royal ……………………………………………. 36%
Undecided………………………………………………. 23%
Q6 The candidates for Agriculture Commissioner
are Democrat Walter Smith and Republican
Steve Troxler. If the election was today, who
would you vote for?
Walter Smith …………………………………………… 35%
Steve Troxler…………………………………………… 45%
Undecided………………………………………………. 21%
Q7 The candidates for State Auditor are Democrat
Beth Wood and Republican Debra Goldman. If
the election was today, who would you vote
for?
Beth Wood……………………………………………… 40%
Debra Goldman ………………………………………. 36%
Undecided………………………………………………. 24%
Q8 The candidates for Supreme Court are Sam
Ervin IV and Paul Newby. If the election was
today, who would you vote for?
Sam Ervin IV…………………………………………… 32%
Paul Newby…………………………………………….. 24%
Undecided………………………………………………. 44%
Q9 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Richard Burr’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .29%
Disapprove…………. .28%
Not sure …………….. .43%
Q10 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Kay
Hagan’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .31%
Disapprove…………. .39%
Not sure …………….. .30%
Q11 Generally speaking, if there was an election
today, would you vote for Democrat Kay Hagan
or her Republican opponent?
Kay Hagan…………. .45%
Republican
opponent……………..41%
Not sure …………….. .14%
Q12 Do you approve or disapprove of the job the
General Assembly is doing?
Approve …………….. .17%
Disapprove…………. .49%
Not sure …………….. .34%
Q13 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of the Democrats in the North Carolina
Legislature?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 36%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%
Q14 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of the Republicans in the North Carolina
Legislature?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 34%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q15 If there was an election for the state legislature
today, would you vote Democratic or
Republican?
Democratic……………………………………………… 45%
Republican……………………………………………… 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q16 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 14%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 16%
Moderate………………………………………………… 28%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 25%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 17%
Q17 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 54%
Man……………………………………………………….. 46%
Q18 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 45%
Republican……………………………………………… 35%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 21%
Q19 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 70%
African-American …………………………………….. 22%
Other……………………………………………………… 7%
Q20 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 15%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 26%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 39%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
Q21 Area Code
252………………………………………………………… 13%
336………………………………………………………… 20%
704………………………………………………………… 19%
828………………………………………………………… 15%
910………………………………………………………… 12%
919………………………………………………………… 21%