Raleigh, N.C. – PPP has rarely found presidential candidates doing exceedingly well in their home-state primaries, but even more rarely has a White House contender fared as poorly as Michigan’s Thad McCotter in his nascent, quixotic bid for the GOP nomination.
Whether Sarah Palin is listed as a candidate or not, McCotter musters only 5% of Michigan Republicans’ preferences for their standard-bearer against President Obama next fall. That bests only adjacent Minnesota’s Tim Pawlenty, who continues to decline in PPP primary polls, garnering 3% with Palin in the field and 4% without.
Leading the pack, regardless of Palin’s presence, is native Mitt Romney, whose father George was Governor over 40 years ago. Romney gets a quarter of the vote, topping soon-to-be-official-candidate Rick Perry’s 13%, Palin’s and neighboring Minnesota’s Michele Bachmann’s 12%, Herman Cain’s 7%, and Newt Gingrich’s and Ron Paul’s 6%. Absent Palin, Romney still pulls 24%, but Bachmann takes almost all of Palin’s support, jumping to 18% over Perry’s 14%, and everyone else at roughly the same place.
“Mitt Romney is the clear front runner in Michigan but folks should keep an eye on Michele Bachmann,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Romney’s lead in the state isn’t as large as you might expect given his long standing ties. A big key for Bachmann’s long term viability will be whether Sarah Palin gets in- if she does it will really hurt her chances.”
In the contest for the right to face Debbie Stabenow, basically no one has heard of the three announced or likely candidates beyond former Rep. Pete Hoekstra, and Hoekstra therefore gets more than three-quarters (78%) of Republicans’ support. Randy Hekman, of whom 85% have no opinion, gets 5% of the vote, while Peter Konetchy (89% with no opinion) and John McCulloch (84%) each pull 3%.
PPP surveyed 400 usual Michigan Republican primary voters from July 21st to 24th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.9%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Michele Bachmann?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 51%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 26%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Herman Cain?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 37%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 14%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 48%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Thad McCotter?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 20%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 61%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 64%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 24%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Perry?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 40%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 13%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 47%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 61%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 23%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Randy Hekman?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 7%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 7%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 85%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Pete Hoekstra?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 64%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 11%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 25%
Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Peter Konetchy?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 3%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 9%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 89%
Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of John McCulloch?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 9%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 8%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 84%
Q11 If the candidates for President next year were
Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt
Gingrich, Thad McCotter, Sarah Palin, Ron
Paul, Tim Pawlenty, Rick Perry, and Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 12%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 7%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 6%
Thad McCotter ………………………………………… 5%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 12%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 6%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 3%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 13%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 25%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 11%
Q12 If Sarah Palin didn’t end up running for
President, and the candidates were Michele
Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Thad
McCotter, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, Rick Perry,
and Mitt Romney, who would you vote for?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 18%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 7%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 7%
Thad McCotter ………………………………………… 5%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 6%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 4%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 14%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 24%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 17%
Q13 Given the choices of Randy Hekman, Pete
Hoekstra, Peter Konetchy, and John
McCulloch, who would you most like to see as
the Republican candidate for Senate next
year?
Randy Hekman ……………………………………….. 5%
Pete Hoekstra…………………………………………. 78%
Peter Konetchy ……………………………………….. 3%
John McCulloch ………………………………………. 3%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q14 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 1%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 2%
Moderate………………………………………………… 20%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 43%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 34%
Q15 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 48%
Man……………………………………………………….. 52%
Q16 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 1%
Republican……………………………………………… 70%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 28%
Q17 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 4%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 20%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 43%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 33%
