Raleigh, N.C. – Freshman Missouri Senator Claire McCaskill’s controversies over the last few months have had little to no impact on her standing with voters. When PPP polled the Senate race two months ago, McCaskill led her prospective Republican opponents by almost identical margins as she does now.
The senator leads Rep. Todd Akin, 46-45, the same margin as in March. She bests former State Treasurer Sarah Steelman and Rep. Blaine Luetkemeyer both by a 45-42 margin. The latter was not tested previously, but Steelman lagged by the exact same margin then. Businessman John Brunner, also tested for the first time, trails 47-41. 2010 House candidate Ed Martin holds his ground at a 46-39 deficit (46-40 in March).
The needle on McCaskill’s job performance has hardly moved. 46% approved in both surveys, and her disapproval level has risen from 45% to only 47%. McCaskill has declined with her own party from 85-8, the reverse of Republicans’ feelings, to only 79-13, but she has treaded water by getting a 22-point boost with independents, from 36-51 to 50-43. She has likewise improved against her challengers with independents, leading them each by at least three points, and losing no more than 8% of Democrats.
The danger for McCaskill is that while she unites Democrats, a lot of Republicans are undecided because, at this early stage, as little as 27% and no more than 48% of voters are aware enough of any one of her opponents to express an opinion on them. If one of them can unite the GOP and capitalize on McCaskill’s vulnerability, she could be in bigger trouble as the election approaches. But Steelman has had her own issues to contend with.
“This race continues to look like a toss up,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But for McCaskill that almost counts as good news, given how much bad publicity she’s had since we last polled the state.”
PPP surveyed 555 Missouri voters from April 28th to May 1st. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.9%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Claire McCaskill’s job performance?
Approve…………….. 46%
Disapprove………… 47%
Not sure ……………. 7%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Todd Akin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 18%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 21%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 61%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of John Brunner?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 8%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 73%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Blaine Luetkemeyer?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 14%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 64%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ed Martin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 11%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 20%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 70%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Steelman?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 26%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 52%
Q7 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Democrat Claire McCaskill and Republican
Todd Akin, who would you vote for?
Claire McCaskill ………………………………………. 46%
Todd Akin……………………………………………….. 45%
Undecided………………………………………………. 8%
Q8 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Democrat Claire McCaskill and Republican
John Brunner, who would you vote for?
Claire McCaskill ………………………………………. 47%
John Brunner ………………………………………….. 41%
Undecided………………………………………………. 12%
Q9 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Democrat Claire McCaskill and Republican
Blaine Luetkemeyer, who would you vote for?
Claire McCaskill ………………………………………. 45%
Blaine Luetkemeyer …………………………………. 42%
Undecided………………………………………………. 13%
Q10 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Democrat Claire McCaskill and Republican Ed
Martin, who would you vote for?
Claire McCaskill ………………………………………. 46%
Ed Martin ……………………………………………….. 39%
Undecided………………………………………………. 15%
Q11 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Democrat Claire McCaskill and Republican
Sarah Steelman, who would you vote for?
Claire McCaskill ………………………………………. 45%
Sarah Steelman ………………………………………. 42%
Undecided………………………………………………. 14%
Q12 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 48%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 42%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 9%
Q13 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 9%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 14%
Moderate………………………………………………… 32%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 25%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 20%
Q14 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 54%
Man……………………………………………………….. 46%
Q15 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 37%
Republican……………………………………………… 37%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 25%
Q16 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 84%
African-American …………………………………….. 11%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%
Q17 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 15%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 41%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
