Raleigh, N.C. – Things literally could not be any closer in Claire McCaskill’s bid for re-election. In PPP’s latest survey of the race, the freshman Missouri Senator ties each of her three prospective Republican opponents at 43%.
McCaskill has been neck-and-neck with frontrunner Sarah Steelman and strong challenger Todd Akin all the way, leading Steelman 43-42 and Akin 45-43 in PPP’s last look at the race four months ago. But voters’ views of McCaskill’s job performance have slipped a little since then, from 43% approving and 47% disapproving to 42-49, and the other GOP contender has gotten significantly better known.
John Brunner has upped his name recognition from 26% to 36%. He is still less known than Akin (47%) or Steelman (46%), but better liked, with an 18-18 favorability spread to Steelman’s 22-24 and Akin’s 19-28. Because of this rise in his public profile, Brunner has closed the gap with McCaskill by nine points since September, when he trailed 46-37. In yesterday’s release, Brunner was also seen creeping up on Steelman and Akin in the primary.
McCaskill is showing some weakness with her own party. In September, she earned 87-90% of the Democratic vote, but now can capture only 78-82%. Meanwhile, the Republicans are more united, earning 78-82% of their own partisans, versus 70-80% before. McCaskill is also down with independents, from leads of two to nine points, now only leading by one and trailing as much as 10. The two parties are most polarized in the event of a Steelman nomination, but she also racks up the largest lead with independents.
“Claire McCaskill’s definitely one of the most vulnerable incumbents in the country,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “What’s helping her out is that the Republican candidate field isn’t very strong either. This is looking like a toss up race much like the one McCaskill had when she was first elected in 2006.”
PPP surveyed 582 Missouri voters from January 27th to 29th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.1%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Claire McCaskill’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .42%
Disapprove…………. .49%
Not sure …………….. .10%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Todd Akin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 19%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 28%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 54%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of John Brunner?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 18%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 64%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Steelman?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 22%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 24%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 54%
Q5 If the candidates for Senate this fall were
Democrat Claire McCaskill and Republican
Todd Akin, who would you vote for?
Claire McCaskill ………………………………………. 43%
Todd Akin……………………………………………….. 43%
Undecided………………………………………………. 14%
Q6 If the candidates for Senate this fall were
Democrat Claire McCaskill and Republican
John Brunner, who would you vote for?
Claire McCaskill ………………………………………. 43%
John Brunner ………………………………………….. 43%
Undecided………………………………………………. 14%
Q7 If the candidates for Senate this fall were
Democrat Claire McCaskill and Republican
Sarah Steelman, who would you vote for?
Claire McCaskill ………………………………………. 43%
Sarah Steelman ………………………………………. 43%
Undecided………………………………………………. 13%
Q8 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 46%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 45%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 9%
Q9 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 10%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 21%
Moderate………………………………………………… 27%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 22%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 20%
Q10 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q11 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 39%
Republican……………………………………………… 35%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 27%
Q12 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 85%
African-American …………………………………….. 10%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%
Q13 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 18%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 26%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 36%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
