Polls

McCaskill in dead heats with Steelman, Akin

| Dustin Ingalls

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SenateGraph Raleigh, N.C. –
Claire McCaskill’s approval rating has slipped a hair since PPP last polled Missouri in May, but she retains similarly slim leads over her two most likely opponents for a second Senate term, and both are still pretty unknown to voters.

43% approve of McCaskill’s work in Washington, down from 46% four months ago.  The same 47% disapprove. Among the 87 senators on which PPP has polled, only one of the 23 Democrats on the ballot next year has a worse standing—Nebraska’s Ben Nelson.

But for now at least, McCaskill leads three Republicans running to replace her.  She tops former State Treasurer Sarah Steelman, 43-42, down from 45-42 in the previous poll.  McCaskill also edges Rep. Todd Akin, 45-43, versus 46-45 in May.  And she leads businessman John Brunner, 46-37, up from 47-41.

McCaskill benefits from the anonymity of these Republicans vying for the nomination.  Three-quarters have no opinion of Brunner, and over half are not familiar with the other two.  None of them is seen positively by voters either.  Steelman is best off, with 23% seeing her favorably and 25% unfavorably, followed by Akin’s 18-26 and Brunner’s 7-19.

McCaskill wins 87-90% of her party, and the Republicans only 70-80% of theirs.  She also leads with independents by two to nine points.  But because of the larger number of undecided Republicans than Democrats, the race with Akin would be tied if they moved Akin’s way, and McCaskill would trail Steelman by three.

“Claire McCaskill continues to look extremely vulnerable for reelection,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But it bodes well for her that even at a low time for her party she’s running slightly ahead of her opposition. She might be able to hang on if Democrats see any improvement in their position over the next year.”

PPP surveyed 632 Missouri voters from September 9th to 12th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.9%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Claire McCaskill’s job performance?
Approve…………….. 43%
Disapprove………… 47%
Not sure ……………. 10%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Todd Akin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 18%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 26%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 57%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of John Brunner?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 7%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 74%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Steelman?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 23%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 25%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 52%

Q5 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Democrat Claire McCaskill and Republican
Todd Akin, who would you vote for?
Claire McCaskill ………………………………………. 45%
Todd Akin……………………………………………….. 43%
Undecided………………………………………………. 12%

Q6 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Democrat Claire McCaskill and Republican
John Brunner, who would you vote for?
Claire McCaskill ………………………………………. 46%
John Brunner ………………………………………….. 37%
Undecided………………………………………………. 17%

Q7 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Democrat Claire McCaskill and Republican
Sarah Steelman, who would you vote for?
Claire McCaskill ………………………………………. 43%
Sarah Steelman ………………………………………. 42%
Undecided………………………………………………. 16%

Q8 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 48%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 45%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 7%

Q9 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 10%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 14%
Moderate………………………………………………… 27%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 26%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 23%

Q10 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 49%
Man……………………………………………………….. 51%

Q11 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 33%
Republican……………………………………………… 37%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 30%

Q12 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 85%
African-American …………………………………….. 10%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%

Q13 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 10%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 26%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 42%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 22%

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