Raleigh, N.C. – John McCain might still beat Barack Obama handily were there a redo of the 2008 election in McCain’s home state, but the senator’s constituents now view Obama’s job performance more favorably than they do that of their longtime senator. 45% of Arizona voters like the job Obama is doing, to 51% who disapprove. While that may seem bad, only 34% approve of how McCain is handling his job to 55% who do not. Republicans only barely approve, 48-39, with independents down at 28-58.
Worse for McCain, his abandonment of the traditional “maverick” label of which he was once proud now has him viewed by 55% as being “a partisan voice for national Republicans,” versus the 28% who see him as “an independent voice for Arizona.” A 35% plurality view him as too conservative; that mark is 45% with moderates.
Being pressed from the right by former Congressman J.D. Hayworth, particularly on immigration, McCain has sided with the new state law cracking down on illegal aliens. This new stance, at odds with his past push for bipartisan immigration reform, has yet to register with voters, a 39% plurality of whom view him as too lenient on immigration. 54% of his party holds that view.
McCain is lucky that his opponents in the Senate race are no more popular than he is. Hayworth is viewed positively by only 23% of voters, with 50% expressing an unfavorable view of him. Democrat Rodney Glassman, a relatively new Tuscon City Councilman, is unknown to 78% of voters; those who have an opinion are negative, 7-15.
McCain leads Glassman 49-33 in a test matchup, but Glassman tops Hayworth 42-39.
“McCain is stuck between a rock and a hard place,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “On the one hand, he is seen as soft on immigration. On the other, he is seen as too partisan and too conservative.”
PPP surveyed 813 Arizona voters from April 23rd to 25th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.4%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
If you would like an interview regarding this release, please contact Dean Debnam at (888) 621-6988 or 919-880-4888.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance? If you
approve, press 1. If you disapprove, press 2.
If you’re not sure, press 3.
Approve …………………………………………………. 45%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 51%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 4%
Q2 Do you support or oppose President Obama’s
health care plan, or do you not have an
opinion? If you support it, press 1. If you
oppose it, press 2. If you don’t have an opinion,
press 3.
Support ………………………………………………….. 42%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 51%
No Opinion……………………………………………… 7%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Janet Napolitano?
Favorable……………. 41%
Unfavorable ………… 48%
Not Sure……………… 10%
Q4 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Jon
Kyl’s job performance?
Approve…………….. 35%
Disapprove………… 39%
Not Sure……………. 25%
Q5 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator John
McCain’s job performance?
Approve ……………… 34%
Disapprove………….. 55%
Not Sure……………… 11%
Q6 Do you think that John McCain is too liberal,
too conservative, or about right?
Too liberal ………………………………………………. 28%
Too conservative …………………………………….. 35%
About right ……………………………………………… 30%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q7 Do you think John McCain’s positions on
immigration are too lenient, too tough, or about
right?
Too lenient ……………………………………………… 39%
Too tough……………………………………………….. 22%
About right ……………………………………………… 29%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q8 Would you describe John McCain more as an
independent voice for Arizona or a partisan
voice for national Republicans?
Independent voice
for Arizona………….28%
Partisan voice for
national
Republicans ……….55%
Not sure ……………. 16%
Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of J.D. Hayworth?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 23%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 50%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 27%
Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rodney Glassman?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 7%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 78%
Q11 If the candidates for Senate this fall were
Republican John McCain and Democrat
Rodney Glassman, who would you vote for?
John McCain……………………………………………. 49%
Rodney Glassman …………………………………… 33%
Undecided………………………………………………. 18%
Q12 If the candidates for Senate this fall were
Republican J.D. Hayworth and Democrat
Rodney Glassman, who would you vote for?
J.D. Hayworth …………………………………………. 39%
Rodney Glassman …………………………………… 42%
Undecided………………………………………………. 19%
Q13 Who did you vote for President last year? If
John McCain, press 1. If Barack Obama, press
2. If someone else or you don’t remember,
press 3.
McCain…………………………………………………… 51%
Obama…………………………………………………… 42%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 7%
Q14 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative? If liberal, press 1. If
moderate, press 2. If conservative, press 3.
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 16%
Moderate………………………………………………… 45%
Conservative…………………………………………… 39%
Q15 If you are a woman, press 1, if a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 54%
Man……………………………………………………….. 46%
Q16 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If you are a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 35%
Republican……………………………………………… 43%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 21%
Q17 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2. If
other, press 3.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 17%
White …………………………………………………….. 73%
Other……………………………………………………… 11%
Q18 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1 now. If
you are 30 to 45, press 2. If you are 46 to 65,
press 3. If older, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 6%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 25%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 45%
Older than 65…………………………………………. 24%
