Raleigh, N.C. – John McCain actually trails with conservative voters in his quest to win the Republican nomination for another term in the Senate, but his broad lead with moderates gives him the overall advantage over former Congressman J.D. Hayworth.
McCain has 46% to 35% for Hayworth and 7% for Jim Deakin. Hayworth is up 46-38 on McCain with the conservatives who make up two thirds of the primary electorate, but that’s more than offset by McCain’s 60-15 lead with moderates in the party.
Both candidates are viewed unfavorably by more GOP primary voters than favorably. 45% disapprove of the job McCain is doing to 44% who approve, while 40% have an unfavorable opinion of Hayworth to 37% with a positive one.
It’s clear that some of McCain’s past issue stances are creating suspicion about him among conservative voters. 53% of those likely to vote in the primary say that McCain’s position on immigration is too lenient. And a 43% plurality think that McCain is overall too liberal compared to 38% who think he’s ‘about right.’
“John McCain’s clearly in a weak position with Republican voters,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “The good news for him is that J.D. Hayworth comes into the race with a whole lot of baggage. That should really help McCain’s prospects for renomination.”
Looking ahead to the 2012 Republican primary for President, Mitt Romney is the early favorite in the state with 27%. Newt Gingrich comes next at 19%, followed by Sarah Palin at 13%, Mike Huckabee at 12%, and Ron Paul at 9%. Romney has a wide lead among moderates but just a small one with conservatives.
PPP will finish up Arizona week tomorrow with numbers on the GOP primary for Gov.
PPP surveyed 387 Republican voters from April 23rd to 25th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-5.0%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
If you would like an interview regarding this release, please contact Dean Debnam at (888) 621-6988 or 919-880-4888.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator John
McCain’s job performance?
Approve ……………… 44%
Disapprove………….. 45%
Not Sure……………… 11%
Q2 Do you think that John McCain is too liberal,
too conservative, or about right?
Too liberal ………………………………………………. 43%
Too conservative …………………………………….. 14%
About right ……………………………………………… 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%
Q3 Do you think John McCain’s positions on
immigration are too lenient, too tough, or about
right?
Too lenient ……………………………………………… 53%
Too tough……………………………………………….. 8%
About right ……………………………………………… 32%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q4 Would you describe John McCain more as an
independent voice for Arizona or a partisan
voice for national Republicans?
Independent voice
for Arizona………….32%
Partisan voice for
national
Republicans ……….48%
Not sure ……………. 21%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of J.D. Hayworth?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 37%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 40%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 23%
Q6 If the Republican candidates for Senate were
Jim Deakin, J.D. Hayworth, and John McCain
who would you vote for?
Jim Deakin……………………………………………… 7%
J.D. Hayworth …………………………………………. 35%
John McCain…………………………………………… 46%
Undecided………………………………………………. 12%
Q7 If the Republican candidates for President in
2012 were Newt Gingrich, Mike Huckabee,
Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, and Mitt Romney who
would you vote for?
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 19%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 12%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 13%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 9%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 27%
Undecided………………………………………………. 19%
Q8 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative? If liberal, press 1. If
moderate, press 2. If conservative, press 3.
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 3%
Moderate………………………………………………… 31%
Conservative…………………………………………… 66%
Q9 If you are a woman, press 1, if a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 49%
Man……………………………………………………….. 51%
Q10 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2. If
other, press 3.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 10%
White …………………………………………………….. 81%
Other……………………………………………………… 9%
Q11 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1 now. If
you are 30 to 45, press 2. If you are 46 to 65,
press 3. If older, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 6%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 26%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 42%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 26%
