Raleigh, N.C. – The ever close Massachusetts Senate race has drawn closer in the last three months. Elizabeth Warren remains at 46%, but incumbent Republican Scott Brown has drawn up five points to tie Warren because of resurgent support from independent voters.
In fact, Brown has doubled his margin with independents. He led by 12 points with them the last time PPP polled the state in March, and he is up 24 now. The candidates’ shares of the respective two-party vote remain essentially unchanged, with Brown still drawing nearly 20% of Warren’s party and Warren pulling less than 10% of Brown’s. The problem for Warren is that 13% of current Obama voters and 18% of those who say they voted for him in 2008 are with Brown right now.
Brown has improved in Bay Staters’ eyes, bringing his approval margin from a narrowly positive 45-42 to a pretty strong 51-38 since the previous survey. That is because his raw approval rating has moved up seven points with each Democrats (to 30%) and independents (to 60%). Meanwhile, Warren has inched down a bit thanks to those same independents who now favor Brown more. Democrats continue to see her in a more positive light while Republicans move equally against her. Hurting her, though, is the fact that the nearly half of voters who claim neither party label have moved from a 39-38 favorability spread to 36-48, bringing her overall mark down from 46-33 to 47-38.
Ultimately, voters still see Brown as being more out of step with his party and in step with them than Warren. 48% see his views as being “about right,” slightly more than the 47% who say the same of Warren. But 42% see Warren as being too liberal, including 53% of independents, versus the 34% who say Brown is too conservative (only a quarter of independents). 56% say the GOP itself is too far to the right.
“This race continues to be a sheer toss up,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “One thing to keep an eye on is the undecideds. They’re supporting Barack Obama over Mitt Romney by 50 points. That could mean Warren has more room to grow.”
PPP surveyed 902 Massachusetts voters from June 22nd to 24th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.3%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Scott
Brown’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 51%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ellizabeth Warren?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 47%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q3 If the candidates for Senate this fall were
Republican Scott Brown and Democrat
Elizabeth Warren, who would you vote for?
Scott Brown ……………………………………………. 46%
Elizabeth Warren …………………………………….. 46%
Undecided………………………………………………. 8%
Q4 Do you think that Scott Brown is too liberal, too
conservative, or about right?
Too liberal ………………………………………………. 8%
Too conservative……………………………………… 34%
About right ……………………………………………… 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q5 Do you think that Elizabeth Warren is too
liberal, too conservative, or about right?
Too liberal ………………………………………………. 42%
Too conservative……………………………………… 2%
About right ……………………………………………… 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q6 Do you think the Republican Party in general is
too liberal, too conservative, or about right?
Too liberal ………………………………………………. 10%
Too conservative……………………………………… 56%
About right ……………………………………………… 27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q7 Do you think the Democratic Party in general is
too liberal, too conservative, or about right?
Too liberal ………………………………………………. 47%
Too conservative……………………………………… 11%
About right ……………………………………………… 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%
Q8 Do you think Scott Brown has been more an
independent voice for Massachusetts or a
partisan voice for the national Republican
Party?
An independent voice for Massachusetts ……. 49%
A partisan voice for the national Republican
Party ………………………………………………………39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q9 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 34%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 58%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 8%
Q10 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 13%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 25%
Moderate………………………………………………… 35%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 19%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 8%
Q11 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 49%
Man……………………………………………………….. 51%
Q12 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 39%
Republican……………………………………………… 13%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 48%
Q13 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 85%
Other……………………………………………………… 15%
Q14 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 9%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 30%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 41%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
