Polls

Massachusetts in the bag for Obama

| Tom Jensen

Header-poll-results

President_Graph Raleigh, N.C. – In 2008, Barack Obama won Massachusetts by 26 points, a margin one point larger than the state’s Senator John Kerry earned in 2004 and one point smaller than Al Gore in 2000.  In PPP’s latest survey of the state, none of the president’s potential 2012 opponents comes any closer now except former Governor Mitt Romney—and even Romney is 20 points behind.

A competitive contest in the deep blue Bay State would almost guarantee that Obama is a one-term president.  When PPP last took a look at the race late last November, shortly after Obama’s party got its clock cleaned at the polls, Romney trailed only 52-43 here, which would have been the closest margin for a Democrat since Michael Dukakis won his own state by only eight points in 1988.

But the president has increased his popularity in the state in the last six months, from an already strong 55% approval and 40% disapproval to 58-37, making this his best state after his native Hawaii.  His leads over the Republican aspirants have increased even more: by 11 points over Romney (57-37), 12 points over Gingrich (63-27 versus 57-33), and seven points over Sarah Palin (63-27 versus 61-32).  The president also beats two candidates not tested last time by a mile: Tim Pawlenty, 59-28, and Herman Cain, 60-27.

Except in the matchup with Romney, double-digit percentages of Republicans are undecided, while the president has his party locked up.  So there is room to improve, but Republicans make up so little of the electorate that a unified GOP will make only one to three points of difference.  The president wins more GOP support than any of the Republicans do Democratic votes, and loses the large independent vote only to Romney.

“Even if Republicans nominate home state candidate Mitt Romney there’s no way Massachusetts will be remotely competitive next year,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.

PPP surveyed 957 Massachusetts voters from June 2nd to 5th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.2%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.

Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Barack
Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 58%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Herman Cain?
Favorable ………….. 15%
Unfavorable……….. 23%
Not sure ……………. 61%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable ………….. 15%
Unfavorable……….. 72%
Not sure ……………. 13%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable ………….. 25%
Unfavorable……….. 70%
Not sure ……………. 5%

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tim Pawlenty?
Favorable ………….. 20%
Unfavorable……….. 36%
Not sure ……………. 44%

Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable ………….. 40%
Unfavorable……….. 52%
Not sure ……………. 8%

Q7 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Herman Cain, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 60%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 27%
Undecided………………………………………………. 14%

Q8 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 63%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 27%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%

Q9 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Sarah Palin, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 63%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 27%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%

Q10 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Tim
Pawlenty, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 59%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 28%
Undecided………………………………………………. 13%

Q11 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 57%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 37%
Undecided………………………………………………. 6%

Q12 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 34%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 60%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 6%

Q13 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 16%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 24%
Moderate………………………………………………… 33%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 19%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 8%

Q14 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 54%
Man……………………………………………………….. 46%

Q15 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 46%
Republican……………………………………………… 15%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 40%

Q16 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 89%
Other……………………………………………………… 11%

Q17 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 26%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 42%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%

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