Raleigh, N.C. – Democratic candidate Elaine Marshall has inched closer to North Carolina’s incumbent Republican Senator Richard Burr by consolidating support from her party’s faithful. Burr’s support in the horse race has stagnated, but his job approval numbers are the worst PPP has ever recorded.
Burr gets 39% to Marshall’s 37%. Libertarian nominee Michael Beitler remains a minor factor, pulling 7% after July’s 10%. 17% are undecided.
For the first time this year, Democrats disapprove of Burr’s job performance more than Republicans approve, 62% to 57%, for an overall 32-44 figure that shows a net-negative 7-point marginal swing since last month’s 34-39 showing. His standing with independents is roughly the same, 33-45 now, versus July’s 27-40.
Marshall’s personal favorability is essentially unchanged from July, 23-19 versus 22-20. As in the horserace, her support has increased among Democrats and decreased slightly among independents. Republicans remain unmoved.
In an interesting but predictable contradiction that could have hurt Burr had he fielded a significant primary challenge but that will not likely hurt him now, North Carolinians, by a 58-25 margin, say they are less likely to vote for a candidate who voted for the $700 billion bank bailout than say they are more likely. 17% say it would make no difference. Burr voted for the bill; Marshall, obviously, did not. But while Democrats are split but leaning to “more likely,” 40-36, Republicans are overwhelmingly inclined to vote against a pro-TARP candidate, 84-8. Independents say the same, but only by a 66-19 margin.
“Elaine Marshall is still little known, so this race is all about Richard Burr, the most vulnerable Republican incumbent in the country,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.
PPP surveyed 624 North Carolina voters from July 27th to 31st. The survey’s margin of error is +/-3.9%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
If you would like an interview regarding this release, please contact Dean Debnam at (888) 621-6988 or 919-880-4888.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Democratic
Senator Kay Hagan’s job performance?
Approve ……………… 33%
Disapprove………….. 45%
Not Sure……………… 22%
Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Republican
Senator Richard Burr’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 32%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 44%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 24%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Elaine Marshall?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 23%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 58%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Michael Beitler?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 6%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 13%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 81%
Q5 The candidates for US Senate this fall are
Republican Richard Burr, Democrat Elaine
Marshall, and Libertarian Michael Beitler. If the
election was today, who would you vote for?
Richard Burr……………………………………………. 39%
Elaine Marshall ……………………………………….. 37%
Michael Beitler ………………………………………… 7%
Undecided………………………………………………. 17%
Q6 Are you more or less likely to vote for a
candidate who voted for the federal
government’s 700 billion dollar bailout of the
nation’s troubled financial institutions?
More likely………………………………………………. 25%
Less likely ………………………………………………. 58%
Doesn’t make a difference either way …………. 17%
Q7 Who did you vote for President last year?
John McCain…………………………………………… 47%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 47%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 6%
Q8 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 17%
Moderate………………………………………………… 36%
Conservative…………………………………………… 48%
Q9 Would you describe the community you live in
as urban, suburban, rural, or a small town?
Urban……………………………………………………… 14%
Suburban ……………………………………………….. 30%
Rural ……………………………………………………… 27%
Small Town…………………………………………….. 29%
Q10 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman…………………………………………………… 50%
Men………………………………………………………… 50%
Q11 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If you are a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat……………………………………………….. 46%
Republican……………………………………………… 34%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 20%
Q12 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 76%
African-American …………………………………….. 21%
Other……………………………………………………… 3%
Q13 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1 now. If
you are 30 to 45, press 2. If you are 46 to 65,
press 3. If older, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 6%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 26%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 45%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 23%
Q14
252………………………………………………………… 12%
336………………………………………………………… 18%
704………………………………………………………… 20%
828………………………………………………………… 13%
910………………………………………………………… 16%
919………………………………………………………… 21%
