Raleigh, N.C. – Elaine Marshall continues to hold the lead in PPP’s final survey of the North Carolina Democratic Senate primary, but with 33% of voters still undecided it’s impossible to say who will come out ahead in Tuesday’s primary.
One thing that is clear is that it’s a two candidate race. Marshall has 28% to 21% for Cal Cunningham, and all the rest of the contenders are in single digits. Kenneth Lewis leads the second tier of candidates with 9%, followed by Marcus Williams at 4%, Ann Worthy at 3%, and Susan Harris at 2%.
Marshall’s lead is up from three points a week ago. That’s thanks largely to a shift among black voters. Where last week they gave Cunningham the lead they’re now leaning toward Marshall. She gets 21% of their votes to 13% for Lewis and 12% for Cunningham.
There are some positive signs for Cunningham in the numbers as well. 70% of his supporters are completely committed to voting for him, compared to only 60% of Marshall’s who express that sentiment. That makes his support more solid than hers. Also, the largest number of undecided voters is in Charlotte where Cunningham has been running tv ads and Marshall has not.
The race is right on the line right now between having a runoff or not. If the undecideds moved in allocation to their current preferences Marshall would lead 42-32, but there is no guarantee they’ll do that.
“Beyond the fact that Marshall and Cunningham will be the top two finishers on Tuesday we can’t say how this will shake out,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “The high level of undecideds mean you can’t count Cunningham out, and there’s still a distinct chance we’ll be going another seven weeks to get a winner.”
PPP surveyed 803 likely Democratic primary voters on May 1st and 2nd. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.5%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
If you would like an interview regarding this release, please contact Dean Debnam at (888) 621-6988 or 919-880-4888.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 The candidates for US Senate are Kenneth
Lewis, Elaine Marshall, Marcus Williams, Ann
Worthy, Cal Cunningham, and Susan Harris. If
the primary was today, who would you vote
for?
Kenneth Lewis ………………………………………… 9%
Elaine Marshall ……………………………………….. 28%
Marcus Williams………………………………………. 4%
Ann Worthy…………………………………………….. 3%
Cal Cunningham……………………………………… 21%
Susan Harris …………………………………………… 2%
Undecided………………………………………………. 33%
Q2 Are you solidly committed to your current
choice for Senate, or is there a chance you
could change your mind between now and the
election?
Solidly committed…………………………………….. 61%
Chance you could change your mind………….. 39%
Q3 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative? If liberal, press 1. If
moderate, press 2. If conservative, press 3.
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 31%
Moderate………………………………………………… 46%
Conservative…………………………………………… 23%
Q4 Who did you vote for President in 2008, or did
you not vote or don’t remember? If you voted
for John McCain, press 1. If you voted for
Barack Obama, press 2. If you didn’t vote,
press 3. If you don’t remember or voted for
someone else, press 4.
McCain…………………………………………………… 21%
Obama…………………………………………………… 75%
Didn’t Vote ……………………………………………… 1%
Don’t Remember/Voted for Someone Else ….. 3%
Q5 If you are a woman, press 1, if a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 56%
Man……………………………………………………….. 44%
Q6 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If an
independent, press 2.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 79%
Independent……………………………………………. 21%
Q7 If you are white, press one now. If you are
African-American, press two now. If other,
press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 64%
African-American …………………………………….. 32%
Other……………………………………………………… 4%
Q8 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1 now. If
you are 30 to 45, press 2. If you are 46 to 65,
press 3. If older, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 10%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 26%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 38%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 26%
Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Kenneth Lewis? If favorable, press 1. If
unfavorable, press 2. If you’re not sure, press
3.
Favorable……………………………………………….. 20%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 15%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 65%
Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Elaine Marshall? If favorable, press 1. If
unfavorable, press 2. If you’re not sure, press
3.
Yes ……………………………………………………….. 47%
No …………………………………………………………. 14%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 39%
Q11 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Cal Cunningham? If favorable, press 1. If
unfavorable, press 2. If you’re not sure, press
3.
Favorable ………….. 36%
Unfavorable……….. 16%
Not Sure……………. 48%
Q12 Which candidate did you hear the most about
over the course of the primary campaign? If
Kenneth Lewis, press 1. If Elaine Marshall,
press 2. If Marcus Williams, press 3. If Ann
Worthy, press 4. If Cal Cunningham, press 5.
If Susan Harris, press 6.
Lewis …………………………………………………….. 13%
Marshall …………………………………………………. 34%
Williams …………………………………………………. 6%
Worthy …………………………………………………… 4%
Cunningham …………………………………………… 38%
Harris …………………………………………………….. 6%
Q13 If there was a runoff election between Cal
Cunningham and Elaine Marshall, who would
you vote for? If Cal Cunningham, press 1. If
Elaine Marshall, press 2. If you’re undecided,
press 3.
Cunningham …………………………………………… 32%
Marshall …………………………………………………. 43%
Undecided………………………………………………. 25%
Q14 Have you seen television ads for Cal
Cunningham? If yes, press 1. If no, press 2. If
you’re not sure, press 3.
Yes ……………………………………………………….. 46%
No …………………………………………………………. 38%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 16%
Q15 Have you seen television ads for Elaine
Marshall? If yes, press 1. If no, press 2. If
you’re not sure, press 3.
Yes ……………………………………………………….. 44%
No …………………………………………………………. 44%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 13%
Q16 Have you heard radio ads for Kenneth Lewis?
If yes, press 1. If no, press 2. If you’re not
sure, press 3.
Yes ……………………………………………………….. 14%
No …………………………………………………………. 69%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 17%
Q17 How excited are you about casting your vote in
the general election this fall? If very excited,
press 1. If somewhat excited, press 2. If not
very excited, press 3. If you’re not sure, press
4.
Very Excited……………………………………………. 45%
Somewhat Excited …………………………………… 26%
Not Very Excited……………………………………… 24%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 5%
Q18 Do you support or oppose the health care bill
President Obama signed in March? If you
support it, press 1. If you oppose it, press 2. If
you’re not sure, press 3.
Support ………………………………………………….. 69%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 23%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 7%
Q19 Do you think the economy is improving, staying
about the same, or getting worse right now? If
improving, press 1. If staying about the same,
press 2. If getting worse, press 3. If you’re not
sure, press 4.
Improving……………………………………………….. 56%
Staying about the same ……………………………. 29%
Getting worse………………………………………….. 14%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 2%
Q20
252………………………………………………………… 14%
336………………………………………………………… 18%
704………………………………………………………… 18%
828………………………………………………………… 11%
910………………………………………………………… 16%
919………………………………………………………… 24%
