Raleigh, N.C. – The race to be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in North Carolina is getting closer and has now come down to just two candidates with a realistic chance at winning.  Elaine Marshall leads with 26% to 23% for Cal Cunningham.  None of the other candidates are even hitting double digits, with Kenneth Lewis at 7%, Marcus Williams at 4%, and Ann Worthy and Susan Harris both registering at 3%.

34% of voters remain undecided, and beyond that 40% of those with a current preference say they could change their minds between now and the election.  So even with a week to go, only 40% of likely primary voters have their minds firmly made up.

There is a pretty decent chance that neither candidate will reach 40% and that the race will end up in a runoff.  When the undecided voters are allocated in proportion to current candidate support Marshall leads Cunningham 40-34, just barely achieving the threshold needed to keep the campaign from going another seven weeks.

Marshall’s strongest performances come with liberals, whites, voters over 65, folks in the Triangle, and people who live in the mountains.  Cunningham is winning with conservatives, African Americans, voters under 30, and folks in the Triad and in eastern North Carolina.

“Cal Cunningham has been creeping closer and closer to Elaine Marshall since starting out the race 30 points behind her,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.  “The big question now given his fundraising advantage is whether she’ll have the resources to hold him off for one final week.”

PPP will release a final poll on the race Sunday evening or Monday morning.

PPP surveyed 458 likely Democratic primary voters from April 24^th to 26th.  The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.6%.  Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

Complete results are attached and can be found at www.publicpolicypolling.com.

If you would like an interview regarding this release, please contact Dean Debnam at (888) 621-6988 or 919-880-4888.

Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 The candidates for US Senate are Kenneth
Lewis, Elaine Marshall, Marcus Williams, Ann
Worthy, Cal Cunningham, and Susan Harris. If
the primary was today, who would you vote
for?
Kenneth Lewis ………………………………………… 7%
Elaine Marshall ……………………………………….. 26%
Marcus Williams………………………………………. 4%
Ann Worthy…………………………………………….. 3%
Cal Cunningham……………………………………… 23%
Susan Harris …………………………………………… 3%
Undecided………………………………………………. 34%

Q2 Are you solidly committed to your current
choice for Senate, or is there a chance you
could change your mind between now and the
election?
Solidly committed…………………………………….. 60%
Chance you could change your mind………….. 40%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Kenneth Lewis? If favorable, press 1. If
unfavorable, press 2. If you’re not sure, press
3.
Favorable……………………………………………….. 23%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 60%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Elaine Marshall? If favorable, press 1. If
unfavorable, press 2. If you’re not sure, press
3.
Yes ……………………………………………………….. 44%
No …………………………………………………………. 15%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 41%

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Cal Cunningham? If favorable, press 1. If
unfavorable, press 2. If you’re not sure, press
3.
Favorable ………….. 39%
Unfavorable……….. 17%
Not Sure……………. 44%

Q6 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative? If liberal, press 1. If
moderate, press 2. If conservative, press 3.
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 36%
Moderate………………………………………………… 45%
Conservative…………………………………………… 19%

Q7 Who did you vote for President in 2008, or did
you not vote or don’t remember? If you voted
for John McCain, press 1. If you voted for
Barack Obama, press 2. If you don’t remember
or voted for someone else, press 3.
McCain…………………………………………………… 15%
Obama…………………………………………………… 81%
Don’t Remember/Voted for Someone Else ….. 4%

Q8 If you are a woman, press 1, if a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 61%
Man……………………………………………………….. 39%

Q9 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If an
independent, press 2.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 84%
Independent……………………………………………. 16%

Q10 If you are white, press one now. If you are
African-American, press two now. If other,
press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 62%
African-American …………………………………….. 35%
Other……………………………………………………… 4%

Q11 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1 now. If
you are 30 to 45, press 2. If you are 46 to 65,
press 3. If older, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 8%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 20%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 44%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 28%

Q12
252………………………………………………………… 13%
336………………………………………………………… 16%
704………………………………………………………… 18%
828………………………………………………………… 11%
910………………………………………………………… 17%
919………………………………………………………… 25%