Raleigh, N.C. – Following two debates and the airing of her first TV ads of the general election, PPP finds Democrat Elaine Marshall behind incumbent Republican Senator Richard Burr only 48-40, with Libertarian Michael Beitler’s share continuing to fall, now at only 3%.  Burr was up 49-36-4 in the previous poll in late September. 

Marshall has brought more Democrats who were undecided or had favored Burr back to the fold, now getting 73% of her party’s support, up from 65%, and even pulling a few more Republicans, at 6%, up from an almost nonexistent 1% last month.  But Burr still has 16% of Democrats, down from 20% in September but still far higher crossover support than most candidates are getting in other races.  Combine that with a persistent more-than-two-to-one lead with independents, and Burr is still favored somewhat comfortably.

The main culprit for the tightening of the race is a closure in the enthusiasm gap that, while still favoring Republicans, is now only four points, versus nine, compared to the 2008 presidential vote.  Despite her severe monetary disadvantage, Marshall would be down only 46-43 if she and Burr were facing 2008’s voter set.

Marshall only went on the air a week ago, but 63% claim to have seen her ads.  75% say that of Burr’s spots.  Possibly explaining his party unity advantage and huge lead with independents is that far more of both have seen his ads than Marshall’s.

Burr’s job approval rating had gone up to 47-38 in the previous poll after being in negative territory for much of the summer and spring, but is now back down to 40-42.  Marshall, meanwhile, has slightly upped her name recognition and brought her favorability mark to 42-32, up from 37-34.

“The good news for Elaine Marshall is that she’s picking up undecided voters and closing the margin against Burr,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.  “There’s good news for Burr in the poll too though.  His support is pretty steady and he’s very close to the 50% mark.”

PPP surveyed 597 likely North Carolina voters from October 15^th to 17^th.  The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.0%.  Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 The candidates for US Senate this fall are
Republican Richard Burr, Democrat Elaine
Marshall, and Libertarian Michael Beitler. If the
election was today, who would you vote for?
Richard Burr……………………………………………. 48%
Elaine Marshall ……………………………………….. 40%
Michael Beitler ………………………………………… 3%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%

Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Republican
Senator Richard Burr’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 40%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Elaine Marshall?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 42%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 32%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 26%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Michael Beitler?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 9%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 29%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 62%

Q5 Have you seen television ads for Richard Burr?
Yes………………………………………………………… 75%
No …………………………………………………………. 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%

Q6 Have you seen television ads for Elaine
Marshall?
Yes………………………………………………………… 63%
No …………………………………………………………. 32%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%

Q7 Do you approve or disapprove of Democratic
Senator Kay Hagan’s job performance?
Approve ……………… 38%
Disapprove………….. 47%
Not sure ……………… 15%

Q8 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 41%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 54%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%

Q9 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 50%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 46%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 4%

Q10 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 17%
Moderate………………………………………………… 38%
Conservative…………………………………………… 45%

Q11 Would you describe the community you live in
as urban, suburban, rural, or a small town?
Urban…………………………………………………….. 14%
Suburban ……………………………………………….. 29%
Rural ……………………………………………………… 29%
Small Town …………………………………………….. 28%

Q12 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 55%
Man……………………………………………………….. 45%

Q13 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 46%
Republican……………………………………………… 37%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 17%

Q14 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 77%
African-American …………………………………….. 19%
Other……………………………………………………… 3%

Q15 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 8%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 28%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 38%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 26%

Q16
252………………………………………………………… 11%
336………………………………………………………… 20%
704………………………………………………………… 19%
828………………………………………………………… 14%
910………………………………………………………… 14%
919………………………………………………………… 22%