Raleigh, N.C. – Elaine Marshall still has the lead in the contest for the Democratic Senate nomination, but with 45% of voters yet undecided three weeks before election day it’s still a pretty wide open race.
Marshall is at 23% to 17% for Cal Cunningham and 9% for Kenneth Lewis. Minor candidates combine for 5% of the vote with the rest undecided. Marshall has led every PPP survey of the race so far.
The candidates continue to be pretty unknown. 61% of voters have no opinion about Marshall, 80% are ambivalent toward Lewis, and 85% are the same toward Cunningham. There’s been basically no movement in those numbers over the last few months.
Marshall’s lead is built on strong support from a couple of key demographic groups within the Democratic primary electorate: women and senior citizens. She’s up 24-14 on Cunningham with women while actually trailing by a point with men, and also leads 26-11 with voters over 65.
“Marshall continues to be the favorite here but the high level of undecideds means there could be a large shift in voter preferences over the final three weeks,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “It’s too early to count out Lewis or Cunningham.”
The Republican side does appear to pretty much be a done deal. Richard Burr is now polling at 67% to 7% for Brad Jones, 3% for Eddie Burks, and 1% for Larry Linney. Burr’s level of support is up from 58% a month ago.
PPP surveyed 401 likely Democratic primary voters and 400 likely Republican primary voters from April 8th to 11th. The margin of error for both surveys is +/-4.9%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Complete results are attached and can be found at www.publicpolicypolling.com.
If you would like an interview regarding this release, please contact Dean Debnam at (888) 621-6988 or 919-880-4888.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Cal Cunningham? If favorable, press 1. If
unfavorable, press 2. If you’re not sure, press
3.
Favorable ………….. 8%
Unfavorable……….. 6%
Not Sure……………. 85%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Kenneth Lewis? If favorable, press 1. If
unfavorable, press 2. If you’re not sure, press
3.
Favorable……………………………………………….. 11%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 9%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 80%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Elaine Marshall? If favorable, press 1. If
unfavorable, press 2. If you’re not sure, press
3.
Favorable……………………………………………….. 32%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 7%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 61%
Q4 The Democratic candidates for US Senate are
Cal Cunningham, Susan Harris, Kenneth
Lewis, Elaine Marshall, Marcus Williams, and
Ann Worthy. If the election was today, who
would you vote for? If Cal Cunningham, press
1. If Susan Harris, press 2. If Kenneth Lewis,
press 3. If Elaine Marshall, press 4. If Marcus
Williams, press 5. If Ann Worthy, press 6. If
you’re undecided, press 7.
Cunningham …………………………………………… 17%
Harris …………………………………………………….. 4%
Lewis …………………………………………………….. 9%
Marshall …………………………………………………. 23%
Williams …………………………………………………. 0%
Worthy …………………………………………………… 1%
Undecided………………………………………………. 45%
Q5 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative? If liberal, press 1. If
moderate, press 2. If conservative, press 3.
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 31%
Moderate………………………………………………… 51%
Conservative…………………………………………… 19%
Q6 I am going to name 7 issues. Which of these is
most important to you? The War in Iraq,
education, the economy and jobs, taxes, moral
or family values, health care, or immigration. If
the War in Iraq is most important, press 1. If
education, press 2. If the economy and jobs,
press 3. If taxes, press 4. If moral and family
values, press 5. If health care, press 6. If
immigration, press 7. If some other issue is
most important, press 8.
War in Iraq ……………………………………………… 6%
Education……………………………………………….. 17%
Economy and Jobs ………………………………….. 57%
Taxes…………………………………………………….. 2%
Moral and family values ……………………………. 6%
Health care …………………………………………….. 10%
Immigration…………………………………………….. 1%
Other……………………………………………………… 2%
Q7 Would you describe the community you live in
as urban, suburban, rural, or a small town? If
urban, press 1. If suburban, press 2. If rural,
press 3. If a small town, press 4.
Urban…………………………………………………….. 19%
Suburban ……………………………………………….. 27%
Rural ……………………………………………………… 24%
Small Town…………………………………………….. 30%
Q8 If you are a woman, press 1, if a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 58%
Man……………………………………………………….. 42%
Q9 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If you are an
independent, press 2.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 87%
Independent……………………………………………. 13%
Q10 If you are white, press one now. If you are
African-American, press two now. If other,
press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 66%
African-American …………………………………….. 30%
Other……………………………………………………… 4%
Q11 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1 now. If
you are 30 to 45, press 2. If you are 46 to 65,
press 3. If older, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 9%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 22%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 47%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 22%
Q12
252………………………………………………………… 18%
336………………………………………………………… 19%
704………………………………………………………… 18%
828………………………………………………………… 12%
910………………………………………………………… 12%
919………………………………………………………… 21%
