Polls

Marriage amendment leading by 24, Perdue down 9

| Dustin Ingalls

Header-poll-results
Raleigh, N.C. –
The prospects are still dim for defeating the marriage amendment on North Carolina’s 2012 May primary ballot, but those who say they will probably vote then have moved slightly against it since last month.  In early October, 61% said they would vote for the amendment which would make marriage between one man and one woman the only valid domestic legal union in the state, and 34% said they would vote against it.  In PPP’s latest poll, that has dropped a bit to 59-35.  Democrats have moved 11 points against it, from 49-44 for the amendment to 42-48 against.  Balancing that, though, is independents, who are now for it, 58-37, down 12 points from 52-43.

More encouraging are the underlying sentiments about same-sex rights.  While 59% of probable primary voters want same-sex marriage to be illegal, that is down from 63% a month ago.  And the level of those who say they support at least civil unions with the same legal rights as marriage is up to 60% from 51%.  Support for full marriage equality is at 26% from 22% and civil unions at 34% from 29%.  Since the amendment would ban civil unions as well as marriage for gay couples, there is hope that Democrats and independents can be persuaded to vote against it.  71% of Democrats and 64% of independents who say they will vote next May support at least civil unions, up from 60% and 59%.

Gov. Bev Perdue has taken a step back in her most likely re-election matchup with 2008 foe Pat McCrory.  In October, she had pulled within five points of him, but is now down nine (48-39), her worst showing since April, when she trailed by 11.  Her approval rating is mostly unchanged since last month, with 38% approving and 50% disapproving, versus 37-51.  That still puts her in a tie for the fifth least popular governor on which PPP has polled this year.  Her weakness remains her own party.  28% of Democrats disapprove, and 20% are pledging for McCrory, roughly the same as last month.  According to 2008 exit polls, she lost only 9% of her own party in beating McCrory by three points.

PPP surveyed 615 North Carolina voters, including 558 probably primary voteres, from October 27th to 31st. The margin of error for the entire survey is +/-4.0%, and +/-4.2% for the primary portion.  This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Bev
Perdue’s job performance?
Approve…………….. 38%
Disapprove………… 50%
Not sure ……………. 12%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Pat McCrory?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 29%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 28%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 42%

Q3 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Democrat Bev Perdue and Republican Pat
McCrory, who would you vote for?
Bev Perdue…………………………………………….. 39%
Pat McCrory……………………………………………. 48%
Undecided………………………………………………. 13%

Q4 If there was an election for the state legislature
today, would you vote Democratic or
Republican?
Democratic……………………………………………… 44%
Republican……………………………………………… 44%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of the Democrats in the North Carolina
Legislature?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 37%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%

Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of the Republicans in the North Carolina
Legislature?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 34%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%

Q7 Do you have more faith in Governor Perdue or
Legislative Republicans to lead the state?
Governor Perdue …………………………………….. 42%
Legislative Republicans ……………………………. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%

Q8 Would you vote for or against a constitutional
amendment to provide that marriage between
one man and one woman is the only domestic
legal union that shall be valid or recognized in
this State?
Would vote for it………………………………………. 59%
Would vote against it ……………………………….. 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%

Q9 Do you think same-sex marriage should be
legal or illegal?
Legal……………………………………………………… 31%
Illegal …………………………………………………….. 59%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%

Q10 Which of the following best describes your
opinion on gay marriage: gay couples should
be allowed to legally marry, or gay couples
should be allowed to form civil unions but not
legally marry, or there should be no legal
recognition of a gay couple’s relationship?
Gay couples should be allowed to legally
marry ……………………………………………………..26%
Gay couples should be allowed to form civil
unions but not marry …………………………………34%
There should be no legal recognition of a gay
couple’s relationship …………………………………38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 2%

Q11 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 8%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 17%
Moderate………………………………………………… 31%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 27%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 17%

Q12 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 54%
Man……………………………………………………….. 46%

Q13 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 46%
Republican……………………………………………… 35%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 19%

Q14 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 74%
African-American …………………………………….. 21%
Other……………………………………………………… 4%

Q15 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 20%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 48%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%

Q16
252………………………………………………………… 11%
336………………………………………………………… 18%
704………………………………………………………… 16%
828………………………………………………………… 14%
910………………………………………………………… 17%
919………………………………………………………… 23%

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