Polls

Markey puts Brown on the ropes

| Tom Jensen


Header-poll-results
Raleigh, N.C. –

A Scott Brown/Ed Markey race to replace John Kerry in Massachusetts would start
out as a toss up, PPP’s newest poll of the state finds. Markey is a clear
favorite over Stephen Lynch in a potential primary contest, and Brown would
have an easier path to the Governor’s office than a return to the Senate.

Brown starts out leading Markey by just 3 points in a head to head match up,
48/45. 69% of the voters currently undecided voted for Elizabeth Warren in
November, while only 17% of them voted for Brown. If those folks ended up
voting for the same party that they did in November, Markey would lead Brown by
a point.

The primary for the special election looks like it will be a blowout. Markey
starts out with a 52/19 lead over Lynch. Lynch actually has a net negative
favorability rating with Democratic voters- only 27% see him positively to 28%
with a negative opinion. Markey, on the other hand, is quite popular with the
party base- 58% of Democrats have a favorable opinion of him to only 13% with
an unfavorable one.

The Senate race looks like about a 50/50 proposition for Brown at this
point. Republican voters, by a 48/38 margin, would actually prefer that Brown
run for Governor rather than the Senate. And our polling finds that Brown would
start out as a pretty strong favorite for that office. With the decisions of
several high profile Democrats recently not to run for Governor next year, none
of the folks who we tested as possible candidates for the office have very high
name recognition. 44% of voters are familiar with Steve Grossman, 36% with
Carmen Ortiz, and 21% with Don Berwick. Brown would start out with substantial
leads against anyone in that trio. He’s up 11 points over Grossman at 48/37,
and 17 points over Berwick and Ortiz at 49/32.

“Scott Brown has a tough choice to make,” said Dean Debnam, President of
Public Policy Polling. “He could make another Senate run with a 50/50 chance of
victory, or choose a Gubernatorial race that might give him better odds.”

PPP surveyed 763 Massachusetts voters and 404 Democratic
primary voters on January 29th and 30th. The margin of error for the
overall sample is +/-3.6% and +/-4.9% for the Democratic portion. This
poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization.
PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .57%
Disapprove…………. .38%
Not sure …………….. . 4%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Scott Brown?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 50%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Stephen Lynch?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 26%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 31%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 43%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ed Markey?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 38%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 27%

Q5 If the candidates in the special election for US
Senate were Republican Scott Brown and
Democrat Stephen Lynch, who would you vote
for?
Scott Brown ……….. .48%
Stephen Lynch……. .39%
Not sure …………….. .12%

Q6 If the candidates in the special election for US
Senate were Republican Scott Brown and
Democrat Ed Markey, who would you vote for?
Scott Brown ……….. .48%
Ed Markey………….. .45%
Not sure …………….. . 8%

Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Don Berwick?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 6%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 80%

Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Steve Grossman?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 22%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 56%

Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Carmen Ortiz?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 12%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 24%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 63%

Q10 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Republican Scott Brown and Democrat Don
Berwick, who would you vote for?
Scott Brown ……….. .49%
Don Berwick……….. .32%
Not sure …………….. .19%

Q11 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Republican Scott Brown and Democrat Steve
Grossman, who would you vote for?
Scott Brown ……….. .48%
Steve Grossman …. .37%
Not sure …………….. .15%

Q12 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Republican Scott Brown and Democrat
Carmen Ortiz, who would you vote for?
Scott Brown ……….. .49%
Carmen Ortiz………. .32%
Not sure …………….. .19%

Q13 Would you like for Scott Brown to run for
Governor, the Senate, or neither office?
Governor………………………………………………… 25%
Senate …………………………………………………… 25%
Neither office…………………………………………… 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%

Q14 Generally speaking, do you vote in Democratic
or Republican primaries, or do you not usually
vote in primaries?
Democratic primaries……………………………….. 52%
Republican primaries ……………………………….. 30%
Don’t usually vote in primaries …………………… 18%

Q15 (Asked only of 404 Democratic primary voters)
If the candidates in the primary for US Senate
were Stephen Lynch and Ed Markey, who
would you vote for?
Stephen Lynch………………………………………… 19%
Ed Markey………………………………………………. 52%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 29%

Q16 Did you vote for Scott Brown or Elizabeth
Warren in last year’s Senate election?
Scott Brown ……………………………………………. 43%
Elizabeth Warren …………………………………….. 53%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 4%

Q17 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 50%
Man……………………………………………………….. 50%

Q18 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 41%
Republican……………………………………………… 17%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 42%

Q19 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 87%
Other……………………………………………………… 13%

Q20 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 25%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 49%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 26%

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