Raleigh, N.C. –
PPP’s first poll of the general election in the Massachusetts Senate special
finds a close race, with Ed Markey leading Gabriel Gomez by a 44-40 margin.
Gomez is starting out as a pretty popular candidate, with 41% of voters
rating him favorably to 27% with an unfavorable opinion. Beyond having good
numbers with Republicans he’s at 42/24 with independents, and actually seen
narrowly positively even by Democrats at 33/32. Voters meanwhile are more
divided on Markey, with 44% holding a positive view of him to 41% with a
negative one. He’s at 31/50 with independents.
For a Republican to be competitive in Massachusetts they need to win
independents by a hefty margin and get a fair amount of crossover support from
Democrats, and right now Gomez is doing both of those things. He’s up 47/31
with independents and winning over 21% of Democratic voters. Both those numbers
suggest that some folks who supported Stephen Lynch in the primary are being a
little reticent about supporting Markey in the general.
The good news for Markey in the poll beyond the obvious fact that he’s in
the lead is that Barack Obama remains pretty popular in the state. He has a
53/41 approval rating. Obama was at only 44/43 when Brown won in 2010 and the
President’s lack of popularity was a big contributor to the upset. He’s in a
much better position this time around. The pool of undecided voters also sets
up well for Markey- they voted for Obama by 18 points in November, 32% are
liberals compared to only 25% who are conservatives, and 61% of them are women.
Those are all demographics that ought to end up favorable to him in the end.
“Ed Markey is the favorite in the Massachusetts Senate election but it looks
like it could be a competitive race,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public
Policy Polling. “Gabriel Gomez is starting out as an appealing candidate and is
drawing some support from the kinds of voters who supported Stephen Lynch in the
Democratic primary.”
PPP surveyed 1,539
likely voters on May 1st and 2nd. The margin of error for the survey
is +/-2.5%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political
organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .53%
Disapprove…………. .41%
Not sure …………….. . 6%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Gabriel Gomez?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 41%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 32%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ed Markey?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 44%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q4 The candidates for US Senate are Republican
Gabriel Gomez and Democrat Ed Markey. If
the election was today, who would you vote
for?
Gabriel Gomez………………………………………… 40%
Ed Markey………………………………………………. 44%
Undecided………………………………………………. 16%
Q5 In the last Presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 57%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 39%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 5%
Q6 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 17%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 22%
Moderate………………………………………………… 33%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 20%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 8%
Q7 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 55%
Man……………………………………………………….. 45%
Q8 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 41%
Republican……………………………………………… 17%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 42%
Q9 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 84%
Other……………………………………………………… 16%
Q10 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 9%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 46%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 21%
