The Mayor of Milwaukee, Tom Barrett is barely behind both of his potential Republican opponents.  In a horse race against Scott Walker, Barrett carries 38% of the vote and Walker 45, 17% remain undecided. Matched with Mark Neumann the Mayor closes the gap 36% to 41% and 23% of voters are undecided.

Walker is far more popular amongst Republicans than Neumann. 63% of Republicans favor Walker, 28% are unsure of their opinion. That is in drastic contrast to the 29% of Republicans who approve of Neumann, 27% who disapprove and 44% who have yet to form an opinion.

With two and a half months until the primary, Neumann could prove to be Walker’s worst enemy as the two Republicans fight to gain the support of the undecided Republican voter.

34% of Wisconsin voters identify as Independents and will undoubtedly impact this election. Currently Independents support both Republicans but many remain undecided, 31% in the Barrett/Neumann race and 27% in the Barrett/Walker match-up. The primary battle may help Barrett gain the support of Independents as negative campaigning during the primary, but close to the general election, turns voters away from the leading Republican.

Barrett should spend the next two and half months getting to know Democrats. Though he has the support of 46% of the party, 42% have yet to form an allegiance. Although Democrats don’t vote against Barrett in either horserace, a large percentage remains undecided; 20% in the Neumann race and 14% in the Walker race. Barrett should ensure the support of his base before the entering into the general election.

“Barrett can win this election, but not without the support of the Democrats.” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “These next few months will be critical for Barrett, he needs to reach out Democrats and connect with Independents”

PPP surveyed 638 Wisconsin voters from June 26-27.  The survey’s margin of error is 3.9 +/- 3.9%.  Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

If you would like an interview regarding this release, please contact Dean Debnam at (888) 621-6988 or 919-880-4888.

Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Jim
Doyle’s job performance?
Approve…………….. 28%
Disapprove………… 59%
Not Sure……………. 12%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tom Barrett?
Favorable……………. 28%
Unfavorable ………… 30%
Not Sure……………… 42%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mark Neumann?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 18%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 35%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 47%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Scott Walker?
Favorable ………….. 36%
Unfavorable……….. 28%
Not Sure……………. 36%

Q5 If the candidates for Governor this fall were
Democrat Tom Barrett and Republican Mark
Neumann, who would you vote for?
Tom Barrett…………………………………………….. 36%
Mark Neumann ……………………………………….. 41%
Undecided………………………………………………. 23%

Q6 If the candidates for Governor this fall were
Democrat Tom Barrett and Republican Scott
Walker, who would you vote for?
Tom Barrett…………………………………………….. 38%
Scott Walker …………………………………………… 45%
Undecided………………………………………………. 17%

Q7 Who did you vote for President last year?
John McCain…………………………………………… 47%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 48%
Someone Else/Don’t Remember………………… 5%

Q8 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative? If liberal, press 1. If
moderate, press 2. If conservative, press 3.
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 19%
Moderate………………………………………………… 41%
Conservative…………………………………………… 40%

Q9 If you are a woman, press 1, if a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 54%
Man……………………………………………………….. 46%

Q10 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If you are a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 33%
Republican……………………………………………… 32%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 34%

Q11 If you are white, press 1. If African American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 89%
African American …………………………………….. 6%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%

Q12 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1 now. If
you are 30 to 45, press 2. If you are 46 to 65,
press 3. If older, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 6%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 25%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 44%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 25%