Polls

Mandel closes on Brown, still down 8

| Dustin Ingalls

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Raleigh, N.C. –
As Ohioans have become a little more familiar with Republican Senate nominee Josh Mandel, his deficit to freshman Sen. Sherrod Brown has closed a little.  When PPP last surveyed the state a little over three months ago, only 39% had an opinion of their new state treasurer, and they fell at 14% favorable and 25% unfavorable.  That has now risen to 55% (25-30).  All of the positive movement comes with Republicans (20-15 to 39-14) and independents (13-26 to 23-28), while Democrats have soured even more on him (10-33 to 12-47).  Brown’s approval numbers have slipped a little as well, from 42% approving and 34% disapproving to 40-35. 

Because of this shift towards a more positive view of Mandel and a slightly more negative one of Brown, the GOP candidate now only trails Brown by eight points (45-37), an improvement over his 11-point disadvantage in January (47-36).  Brown leads by 13 (42-29) with independents.  Both candidates have room to consolidate their bases: Brown gets 77% of Democrats and Mandel 70% of Republicans.

“Sherrod Brown continues to be favored for reelection,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Josh Mandel’s not making a great impression on the voters so far.”

Gov. John Kasich would be in a neck-and-neck race for re-election right now, and it’s a good thing for him he has two more years to continue to improve his public image.  He would trail his predecessor Ted Strickland by a 47-40 margin; Kasich prevailed by two points in 2010.  Kasich would tie two other prominent potential Democratic challengers, former Attorney General and current Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Director Richard Cordray (42-all) and Rep. Tim Ryan (Ryan up 41-40).  Ryan is a known quantity to only 31% of voters and Cordray to 43%, versus Strickland’s 76% and Kasich’s 87%, so they would have time to match Strickland’s performance if they jumped into the race.

Ohio is moving toward favoring legal rights for same-sex couples just like the rest of the country is.  Only 35% support full marriage equality, and 52% oppose it, but 65% support some sort of legal recognition for gay couples, including 77% of Democrats, 66% of independents, and even 50% of Republicans.

PPP surveyed 875 Ohio voters from May 3rd to 6th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.3%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Sherrod Brown’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .40%
Disapprove…………. .35%
Not sure …………….. .25%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Josh Mandel?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 25%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 30%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 45%

Q3 The candidates for US Senate are Democrat
Sherrod Brown and Republican Josh Mandel. If
the election was today, who would you vote
for?
Sherrod Brown………………………………………… 45%
Josh Mandel …………………………………………… 37%
Undecided………………………………………………. 19%

Q4 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
John Kasich’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 38%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Richard Cordray?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 25%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 58%

Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tim Ryan?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 15%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 16%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 68%

Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ted Strickland?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 40%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 24%

Q8 If the candidates for Governor in 2014 were
Republican John Kasich and Democrat
Richard Cordray, who would you vote for?
John Kasich ……………………………………………. 42%
Richard Cordray………………………………………. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%

Q9 If the candidates for Governor in 2014 were
Republican John Kasich and Democrat Tim
Ryan, who would you vote for?
John Kasich ……………………………………………. 40%
Tim Ryan ……………………………………………….. 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%

Q10 If the candidates for Governor in 2014 were
Republican John Kasich and Democrat Ted
Strickland, who would you vote for?
John Kasich ……………………………………………. 40%
Ted Strickland …………………………………………. 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%

Q11 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Dennis Kucinich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 24%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 36%

Q12 If there was an election for the Congress today,
would you vote Democratic or Republican?
Democratic……………………………………………… 45%
Republican……………………………………………… 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%

Q13 Do you think same-sex marriage should be
legal or illegal?
Legal……………………………………………………… 35%
Illegal …………………………………………………….. 52%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%

Q14 Which of the following best describes your
opinion on gay marriage: gay couples should
be allowed to legally marry, or gay couples
should be allowed to form civil unions but not
legally marry, or there should be no legal
recognition of a gay couple’s relationship?
Gay couples should be allowed to legally
marry ……………………………………………………..31%
Gay couples should be allowed to form civil
unions but not marry …………………………………34%
There should be no legal recognition of a gay
couple’s relationship …………………………………32%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%

Q15 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 42%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 48%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 10%

Q16 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 9%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 18%
Moderate………………………………………………… 31%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 22%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 19%

Q17 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%

Q18 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 41%
Republican……………………………………………… 39%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 20%

Q19 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 85%
African-American …………………………………….. 11%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%

Q20 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 13%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 21%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 42%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 24%

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