Raleigh, N.C. – The Senate contest in West Virginia is between Joe Manchin’s popularity and Barack Obama’s unpopularity and in the end it looks as though Manchin’s popularity will win out. Manchin leads John Raese 51-46 in PPP’s final look at the race.
Manchin is the most popular politician we’ve polled on anywhere in the country this year and it’s by a wide margin. On this final poll his approval rating hit the 70% mark with only 22% disapproving of him. Usually you would expect someone with those kinds of numbers to have an easy time of it but Manchin’s been hampered by efforts to tie him to Barack Obama and national Democrats. Obama’s approval rating in the state is only 31% with 61% of voters disapproving of him.
About a month ago it looked like there was a very real chance Manchin could lose. But three key things have put him in a position for victory:
-John Raese did not prove to be a particularly strong opponent. The first time PPP polled the race, his favorability was 41/35. On this final poll his favorability is 41/47. As voters have gotten to know Raese and make up their minds about him they’ve generally found him to be unappealing.
-Democrats in West Virginia aren’t having the same kind of enthusiasm issues that are plaguing their party throughout most of the country. John McCain won the state by 13 points in 2008 and those planning to vote this year supported McCain by a basically identical 12 points.
-Manchin has made enough conservatives comfortable voting for him. He’s winning 19% of the Republican vote, more than any other Democratic Senate nominee we’ve polled on except for Chris Coons in Delaware.
“It looks like Joe Manchin will probably survive the Republican wave that will take down many Democrats across the country on Tuesday night,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “He started out the campaign with enormous popularity and has convinced enough voters that he won’t be a rubber stamp for unpopular national Dems.”
PPP surveyed 1,676 likely West Virginia voters on October 30th and 31st. The margin of error for the survey is +/- 2.4%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 The candidates for US Senate are Democrat
Joe Manchin and Republican John Raese. If
the election was today, who would you vote
for?
Joe Manchin …………………………………………… 51%
John Raese…………………………………………….. 46%
Undecided………………………………………………. 3%
Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Joe
Manchin’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 70%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of John Raese?
Favorable ………….. 41%
Unfavorable……….. 47%
Not sure ……………. 12%
Q4 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 31%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 61%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q5 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Jay
Rockefeller’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 49%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q6 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Carte
Goodwin’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 17%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 61%
Q7 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 52%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 40%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 9%
Q8 Do you identify yourself as a liberal, moderate,
or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 13%
Moderate………………………………………………… 44%
Conservative…………………………………………… 43%
Q9 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q10 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 55%
Republican……………………………………………… 34%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 11%
Q11 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2,
White …………………………………………………….. 95%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%
Q12 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 20%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 42%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 26%
Q13 Have you already cast your ballot for this
year’s election?
Yes………………………………………………………… 27%
No …………………………………………………………. 73%
