Raleigh, N.C. – Three weeks ago, PPP was the first pollster to show Republican John Raese taking a slim lead over Democrat Joe Manchin in the race to succeed Robert Byrd. Now Manchin is back on top, albeit narrowly, in the wake of a scandal over a Republican ad for Raese that cast Philadelphia natives to play “hicky” West Virginians.
Manchin has 48% to Raese’s 45%, following his 43-46 deficit to Raese in the previous poll. This six-point improvement can largely be pegged to an erasure of the pro-Republican enthusiasm gap. Likely voters now report having voted for John McCain over Barack Obama by 11 points, when he won the state by 13 two years ago. In September, McCain supporters outnumbered Obama voters by 23 points. Both men have consolidated their party bases, Manchin with 70% of his party to Raese’s 81% of his. Raese has the party unity edge because he is still pulling an identical 23% of the state’s conservative set of Democrats, considerably more than Manchin’s 13% of Republicans. Where Manchin has gained, though, is among independents. Raese still leads, but only by a 52-38 margin, down from 56-30.
In this more friendly electorate, both Manchin and Obama are viewed more favorably than previously, with Manchin now overtaking Arkansas’ Mike Beebe as the most popular governor PPP has polled on. But the president is still less popular here than in any of the 31 states in which he has been measured this year. And because over two-thirds of West Virginians like what Manchin is doing as governor, they would rather have him stay there than go to Washington, by a 47-38 margin. While Manchin has become more popular, the ad scandal may have hurt Raese already, because he has turned a 41-35 favorability rating into a 39-46 one, a negative swing of 13 points overall—22 points and 24 points with Democrats and independents, respectively.
“There’s no doubt that the West Virginia Senate race has achieved toss up status,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “The good news for Manchin though is that things seem to have stabilized for him some after it seemed like he was headed downhill through the last part of September. His high level of popularity gives him a good chance of winning this despite his state’s dislike of national Democrats.”
PPP surveyed 1,247 likely West Virginia voters from October 9th to 10th. The margin of error is +/-2.8%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 The candidates for US Senate are Democrat
Joe Manchin and Republican John Raese. If
the election was today, who would you vote
for?
Joe Manchin …………………………………………… 48%
John Raese…………………………………………….. 45%
Undecided………………………………………………. 7%
Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Joe
Manchin’s job performance?
Approve ……………… 68%
Disapprove………….. 22%
Not sure ……………… 10%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of John Raese?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 39%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q4 Would you rather have Joe Manchin as
Governor or a Senator?
Governor………………………………………………… 47%
Senator ………………………………………………….. 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q5 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 33%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 61%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q6 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Jay
Rockefeller’s job performance?
Approve ……………… 51%
Disapprove………….. 40%
Not sure ……………… 9%
Q7 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Carte
Goodwin’s job performance?
Approve ……………… 20%
Disapprove………….. 25%
Not sure ……………… 55%
Q8 Would you rather Democrats or Republicans
controlled the next Congress?
Democrats ……………………………………………… 43%
Republicans ……………………………………………. 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q9 Do you think the national Democratic Party is
too liberal, too conservative, or about right?
Too liberal ………………………………………………. 53%
Too conservative……………………………………… 8%
About right ……………………………………………… 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%
Q10 Do you think the national Republican Party is
too liberal, too conservative, or about right?
Too liberal ………………………………………………. 19%
Too conservative……………………………………… 37%
About right ……………………………………………… 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q11 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 50%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 39%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 11%
Q12 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 13%
Moderate………………………………………………… 48%
Conservative…………………………………………… 39%
Q13 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%
Q14 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 55%
Republican……………………………………………… 33%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 12%
Q15 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 91%
African-American …………………………………….. 9%
Q16 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 10%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 20%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 45%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 25%
