Raleigh, N.C. – Joe Manchin’s maintained his popularity with West Virginia voters as he has transitioned from the state house to the nation’s capital. He has a 52-32 job approval margin, good for 10th out of 74 senators on which PPP has polled in the last year or so. Despite West Virginians’ wariness of national Democrats, the state still has a strongly Democratic, if conservative Democratic, electorate, and Manchin is in good shape against three potential opponents next fall.
Second-district Rep. Shelley Moore Capito has long been considered the GOP’s best shot at higher office in the Mountain State. She has slightly better favorability numbers than Manchin’s job performance rating, at 54-30. But the state’s voters still prefer Manchin to Capito, 50-41. In two other matchups, the result is not nearly as close; Manchin has roughly 2:1 leads in both. In a rematch with 2010 opponent John Raese, Manchin leads by a whopping 60-31, far greater than the 54-43 result from just a few months ago. Versus newly inaugurated 1st-district Rep. David McKinley, Manchin prevails, 57-28.
Despite the conservatism of the state’s voters and the red streak at the presidential level in recent years, Democrats still dominate here because there are just so many more of them, so Republicans have to clean up with independents and poach a lot of Democratic voters to be able to win. Capito is the only one who approaches accomplishing that.
Raese has fallen out of favor since his defeat, turning a 41-47 favorability rating into a 30-52 now. As such, Manchin has flipped a 39-55 deficit with independents into a nominal 43-42 lead, and he earns the support of twice as many Republicans (30%) as Raese does Democrats. Last year, Raese pulled slightly more Democrats than Manchin did Republicans. It is a similar story against the lesser known McKinley, who leads 43-37 with independents, but is held to only 52% of the GOP, similar to Raese’s 57%. Manchin picks up 28% of Republicans, and loses only 12% of his own party.
“So far, so good for Joe Manchin since going to Washington DC,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “He remains very popular and leads the most formidable potential opponent Republicans could run against him next year by an amount comparable to his 2010 margin of victory.”
PPP surveyed 1,105 West Virginia voters from January 20th to 23rd. The survey’s margin of error is +/-2.9%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Joe
Manchin’s job performance?
Approve…………….. 52%
Disapprove………… 32%
Not sure ……………. 15%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Shelley Moore Capito?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 54%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 30%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of David McKinley?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 19%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 25%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 56%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of John Raese?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 30%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 52%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q5 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Democrat Joe Manchin and Republican
Shelley Moore Capito, who would you vote for?
Joe Manchin …………………………………………… 50%
Shelley Moore Capito……………………………….. 41%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%
Q6 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Democrat Joe Manchin and Republican David
McKinley, who would you vote for?
Joe Manchin …………………………………………… 57%
David McKinley ……………………………………….. 28%
Undecided………………………………………………. 14%
Q7 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Democrat Joe Manchin and Republican John
Raese, who would you vote for?
Joe Manchin …………………………………………… 60%
John Raese…………………………………………….. 31%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%
Q8 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 15%
Moderate………………………………………………… 40%
Conservative…………………………………………… 45%
Q9 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%
Q10 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 57%
Republican……………………………………………… 32%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 10%
Q11 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 95%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%
Q12 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 8%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 22%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 47%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 23%
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