Raleigh, N.C. – The special election to fill the late Robert Byrd’s long-held U.S. Senate seat last fall was a nailbiter that ended in a ten-point rout in the end. In PPP’s latest poll of next fall’s race for a full six-year term in that seat, Joe Manchin is faring at least as well now as he did in the unusually hostile election for Democrats that was 2010. The Republican most frequently touted as a tough opponent for Manchin is Rep. Shelley Moore Capito. But Manchin leads her by a similar margin as PPP’s January poll, 48-40 now, versus 50-41 then. If Capito declines again to run for higher office, and 2010 opponent John Raese seeks a rematch, Manchin would prevail this time by a 61-29 landslide, up from 60-31 in the previous survey. The incumbent also tops new Rep. David McKinley by a 63-25 margin, an improvement from his 57-28 spread in January.
Capito is beloved by independents, beating Manchin 57-22 with them, but they make up only 10% of the electorate. Manchin gets 40% of the vote just by earning two-thirds of Democrats. Against the other two, that rises to 76-77%, and Manchin also wins independents by double digits and takes 35-39% of the GOP to their 50-55%. Manchin wins only 20% of Republicans against Capito, who maintains 74% of her party’s support. She also earns 21% of Democrats, while the others get only 12% or 15%.
Manchin was one of the country’s most popular governors when he was in that office, and so far, he is also in rare company in the Senate, ranking 15th out of 85 senators on which PPP has polled in the last 15 months. His 55-31 job approval margin is up slightly from 52-32 in January. Even the very conservative give him a 47-38 spread, though his criticism of President Obama which has helped win him the nod from the right has also caused the very liberal to approve only 43-40. With a 48-32 favorability margin, Capito is by far the best-liked Republican, compared to McKinley’s 22-25 and Raese’s 26-52.
“So far Joe Manchin’s popularity is holding up well through his transition from Governor to the Senate,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.
PPP surveyed 850 West Virginia voters from April 21st to 24th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.4%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Joe
Manchin’s job performance?
Approve…………….. 55%
Disapprove………… 31%
Not sure ……………. 14%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Shelley Moore Capito?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 48%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 32%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of David McKinley?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 22%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 25%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 53%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of John Raese?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 26%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 52%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 22%
Q5 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Democrat Joe Manchin and Republican
Shelley Moore Capito, who would you vote for?
Joe Manchin …………………………………………… 48%
Shelley Moore Capito……………………………….. 40%
Undecided………………………………………………. 12%
Q6 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Democrat Joe Manchin and Republican David
McKinley, who would you vote for?
Joe Manchin …………………………………………… 63%
David McKinley ……………………………………….. 25%
Undecided………………………………………………. 12%
Q7 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Democrat Joe Manchin and Republican John
Raese, who would you vote for?
Joe Manchin …………………………………………… 61%
John Raese…………………………………………….. 29%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%
Q8 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Jay
Rockefeller’s job performance?
Approve…………….. 45%
Disapprove………… 42%
Not sure ……………. 13%
Q9 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 51%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 38%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 12%
Q10 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 10%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 15%
Moderate………………………………………………… 32%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 24%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 18%
Q11 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 54%
Man……………………………………………………….. 46%
Q12 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 60%
Republican……………………………………………… 29%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 10%
Q13 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 96%
Other……………………………………………………… 4%
Q14 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 10%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 20%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 44%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 26%
