Raleigh, N.C. – The momentum in the West Virginia Senate race continues to be in Joe
Manchin’s favor and he now leads John Raese 50-44. A PPP poll two weeks ago found
him with a 3 point lead and a survey last month actually found him trailing by 3.

Manchin continues to be the most popular politician PPP has polled on anywhere in the
country this year with 69% of voters in the state approving of his job performance and
only 23% disapproving. The reason his standing has improved over the last two weeks is that he’s increasing his support from conservative voters in the state. Where before he was getting just 17% from them, he’s now up to 24%. Efforts like the television ad where he ‘shoots’ cap and trade seems to be having some resonance with voters who like Manchin but aren’t very fond of his party’s leadership in Washington.

Manchin’s lead comes against a political backdrop in West Virginia that couldn’t be
much more hostile to Democrats. Barack Obama’s approval rating in the state is only
31% with 65% of voters disapproving, the worst numbers PPP has found for him
anywhere in the country this year. By a 52-40 margin voters in the state want
Republicans to be in control of the next Congress, and 55% think that the Democratic
Party is too liberal. For all of that Manchin continues to make progress.

It’s helping Manchin’s cause that Raese is not proving to be a particularly formidable
opponents. Only 42% of voters in the state have a favorable opinion of him, while 47%
see him a negative light. PPP’s first West Virginia poll found his favorability at a
positive 41/35. Since then a lot of voters have decided they don’t like him while virtually none have developed positive feelings toward him.

“Joe Manchin’s gained 9 points in the polls over the last five weeks,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “That’s an indication of an effective campaign that’s been able to ease the fear of voters that he’d be just another vote for the agenda of a President they don’t like.”

PPP will release one more West Virginia poll before the election.

PPP surveyed 1,246 likely West Virginia voters on October 23rd and 24th. The margin of error is +/-2.8%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may
introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 The candidates for US Senate are Democrat
Joe Manchin and Republican John Raese. If
the election was today, who would you vote
for?
Joe Manchin …………………………………………… 50%
John Raese…………………………………………….. 44%
Undecided………………………………………………. 6%

Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Joe
Manchin’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .69%
Disapprove…………. .23%
Not sure …………….. . 8%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of John Raese?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 42%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%

Q4 Would you rather have Joe Manchin as
Governor or a Senator?
Governor………………………………………………… 48%
Senator ………………………………………………….. 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%

Q5 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 31%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 65%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%

Q6 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Jay
Rockefeller’s job performance?
Approve ……………… 47%
Disapprove………….. 43%
Not sure ……………… 10%

Q7 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Carte
Goodwin’s job performance?
Approve ……………… 19%
Disapprove………….. 27%
Not sure ……………… 53%

Q8 Would you rather Democrats or Republicans
controlled the next Congress?
Democrats ……………………………………………… 40%
Republicans ……………………………………………. 52%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%

Q9 Do you think the national Democratic Party is
too liberal, too conservative, or about right?
Too liberal ………………………………………………. 55%
Too conservative……………………………………… 7%
About right ……………………………………………… 32%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%

Q10 Do you think the national Republican Party is
too liberal, too conservative, or about right?
Too liberal ………………………………………………. 19%
Too conservative……………………………………… 33%
About right ……………………………………………… 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%

Q11 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 54%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 38%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 8%

Q12 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 13%
Moderate………………………………………………… 46%
Conservative…………………………………………… 42%

Q13 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%

Q14 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 55%
Republican……………………………………………… 35%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 11%

Q15 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 94%
Other……………………………………………………… 6%

Q16 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 8%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 20%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 48%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 24%