Raleigh, N.C. – Just as he did in the closing weeks of the primary campaign in which he came from way behind to topple Betty Ireland, Bill Maloney is narrowing the gap between him and acting Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin in the race to complete now-Sen. Joe Manchin’s term. But it will be tough for Maloney to get over the hump this time. Tomblin leads only 46-40. Almost all of the undecideds have moved toward Maloney since PPP last polled the race just before the primary in May. Then, Tomblin had a 45-30 advantage.
The difference is that Republicans have come home to roost now that Maloney has won the nomination. Then only 60% of them pledged their vote to him, with 17% going to Tomblin. Now Maloney leads 76-11 with the GOP, good for about eight of the nine points he has gained. The rest comes from a slight increase with the majority Democrats. Tomblin led with his own party, 65-11, in May, and 69-17 now.
Maloney’s party is more united than Tomblin’s, the reverse of the situation before the party’s nominees were known. Luckily for Tomblin, his party still has a 55-36 identification advantage, meaning Maloney will have to cut even more into the Democratic vote to win.
Unusual for most elections these days, both candidates have gotten more popular in the heat of the general-election campaign. Maloney has significantly increased his name recognition, from a 23-24 favorability rating in May to 43-29 now. Tomblin has moved from a 40-27 approval margin to 50-25.
“The momentum in this race is definitely in Bill Maloney’s direction,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “The problem for him now is that he’s pretty much maxed out on Republican support so he’ll need to win over a lot of Democrats in the closing stretch of the campaign to get over the 50% mark.”
PPP surveyed 708 likely West Virginia voters from September 1st to 4th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.7%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 The candidates for Governor are Republican
Bill Maloney and Democrat Earl Ray Tomblin.
If the election was today, who would you vote
for?
Bill Maloney……….. 40%
Earl Ray Tomblin… 46%
Undecided…………. 14%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bill Maloney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 43%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 29%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 29%
Q3 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Earl
Ray Tomblin’s job performance?
Approve…………….. 50%
Disapprove………… 25%
Not sure ……………. 25%
Q4 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 49%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 40%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 11%
Q5 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 8%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 15%
Moderate………………………………………………… 26%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 28%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 22%
Q6 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q7 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 55%
Republican……………………………………………… 36%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 9%
Q8 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 95%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%
Q9 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 8%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 18%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 45%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 29%
