Raleigh, N.C. – The Republican race for Governor in West Virginia has shifted dramatically in Bill Maloney’s direction over the last three weeks and he now has the smallest of leads with 32% to presumptive front runner Betty Ireland’s 31%. It’s a two person race with Clark Barnes at 8%, Larry Faircloth at 6%, Mark Sorsaia and Mitch Carmichael at 4%, Ralph William Clark at 1%, and Cliff Ellis at 0% rounding out the field. 14% of voters remain undecided even 36 hours out from election day, making this a complete toss up between Maloney and Ireland.
When PPP first polled this race in mid-April Ireland led with 31% to Maloney’s 17%. Since that point in time she has not picked up any additional support, while Maloney has seen a 15 percent gain in his standing. We found on that poll that Maloney’s primary problem was name recognition- with voters who knew who he was he actually led Ireland by 14 points, but 62% of voters were familiar with her while only 38% were familiar with Maloney. He’s now closed most of that gap- 65% of primary voters know enough about Ireland to have formed an opinion and the same is true for 60% when it comes to Maloney. Their favorability ratings are now identical at 47%, with Ireland’s negatives slightly higher at 18% to Maloney’s 13%.
If Maloney does indeed pull off the comeback victory it will continue the 2010 trend of right wing candidates knocking off comparative centrists in Republican primaries. Ireland is destroying Maloney by a 44-25 margin with voters describing themselves as moderates. But Maloney is up 33-29 with voters describing themselves as ‘somewhat conservative’ and with ‘very conservative’ voters, who account for the largest segment of the GOP electorate in the state, he’s up 36-31.
“This is going to be the race to watch on Saturday night,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “It’s a complete toss up and certainly Ireland could still win but the momentum is clearly in Maloney’s direction.”
PPP surveyed 314 likely Republican primary voters on May 11th and 12th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-5.5%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 The Republican candidates for Governor are
Clark Barnes, Mitch Carmichael, Ralph William
Clark, Cliff Ellis, Larry Faircloth, Betty Ireland,
Bill Maloney, and Mark Sorsaia. If the primary
was today, who would you vote for?
Clark Barnes …………………………………………… 8%
Mitch Carmichael …………………………………….. 4%
Ralph William Clark………………………………….. 1%
Cliff Ellis…………………………………………………. 0%
Larry Faircloth…………………………………………. 6%
Betty Ireland……………………………………………. 31%
Bill Maloney ……………………………………………. 32%
Mark Sorsaia…………………………………………… 4%
Undecided………………………………………………. 14%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Betty Ireland?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 47%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 35%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bill Maloney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 47%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 13%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 40%
Q4 If the Republican candidates for President in
2012 were Michele Bachmann, Newt Gingrich,
Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, Tim
Pawlenty, Mitt Romney, and Donald Trump
who would you vote for?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 4%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 12%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 21%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 15%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 9%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 3%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 15%
Donald Trump …………………………………………. 9%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 12%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 52%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 21%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 27%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Huckabee?
Favorable……………. 68%
Unfavorable …………12%
Not sure ……………… 21%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 62%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 23%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 56%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 26%
Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Donald Trump?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 31%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 52%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q10 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 50%
Man……………………………………………………….. 50%
Q11 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 14%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 16%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 37%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 33%
Q12 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 2%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 5%
Moderate………………………………………………… 11%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 40%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 41%
