Raleigh, N.C. – Public Policy Polling’s first Connecticut poll of 2014 finds Dan Malloy with an 8 point lead for reelection over Republican foe Tom Foley, 43/35. Independent Joe Visconti is polling at 9%. Visconti is largely drawing voters away from Foley- his supporters say their second choice would be Foley by a 46/27 spread. In a head to head, Malloy’s advantage over Foley is 6 points at 45/39.
Malloy’s had low approval numbers throughout most of his term and that hasn’t changed- only 40% of voters approve of the job he’s doing to 50% who disapprove. But Foley’s numbers are even worse with just 34% of voters holding a favorable opinion of him to 49% with an unfavorable one. The dislike of both candidates helps to explain why Visconti is getting such a high level of support. Malloy is actually winning more Republicans (17%) than Foley is Democrats (12%) which makes it very hard for a Republican to be successful in a state where Democrats have a substantial registration advantage.
“The race for Governor in Connecticut seems to be moving in Dan Malloy’s direction as the election nears,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Malloy was trailing in polling earlier this year, but voters in the state really don’t care for Tom Foley.”
Democrats are headed for a sweep up and down the ballot in Connecticut this fall. George Jepsen leads 45/30 for Attorney General, Denise Merrill is up 42/33 for Secretary of State, Denise Nappier is up 45/37 for Treasurer, and Kevin Lembo leads 38/33 for Comptroller.
Both of the state’s Senators have pretty solid approval numbers. 49% think Richard Blumenthal is doing a good job to 36% who disapprove. And 44% are happy with Chris Murphy’s performance to 38% who disapprove. Connecticut isn’t likely to be competitive in the 2016 Presidential race if Hillary Clinton runs. She leads all potential Republican opponents in the state by double digits- 49/39 over Chris Christie, 50/37 over Jeb Bush, 53/34 over Mike Huckabee, 54/35 over Rand Paul, and 54/32 over Ted Cruz.
PPP surveyed 861 likely voters from October 2nd to 5th. The margin of error for the survey is +/- 3.3%. 80% of interviews for the poll were conducted over the phone with 20% interviewed over the internet to reach respondents who don’t have landline telephones.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 44%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Dan Malloy’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 40%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tom Foley?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 34%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q4 The candidates for Governor are Democrat
Dan Malloy, Republican Tom Foley, and
petition candidate Joe Visconti. If the election
was today, who would you vote for?
Dan Malloy……………………………………………… 43%
Tom Foley ………………………………………………. 35%
Joe Visconti ……………………………………………. 9%
Undecided………………………………………………. 14%
Q5 Combined horse race, with Visconti supporters
asked if they lean Malloy or Foley
Dan Malloy……………………………………………… 45%
Tom Foley ………………………………………………. 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q6 The candidates for Secretary of State are
Democrat Denise Merrill and Republican Peter
Lumaj. If the election was today, who would
you vote for?
Denise Merrill………………………………………….. 42%
Peter Lumaj ……………………………………………. 33%
Undecided………………………………………………. 25%
Q7 The candidates for State Treasurer are
Democrat Denise Nappier and Republican
Timothy Herbst. If the election was today, who
would you vote for?
Denise Nappier ……………………………………….. 45%
Timothy Herbst ……………………………………….. 37%
Undecided………………………………………………. 18%
Q8 The candidates for Comptroller are Democrat
Kevin Lembo, Republican Sharon McLaughlin,
and Green Party candidate Rolf Maurer. If the
election was today, who would you vote for?
Kevin Lembo…………………………………………… 38%
Sharon McLaughlin………………………………….. 33%
Rolf Maurer …………………………………………….. 12%
Undecided………………………………………………. 17%
Q9 The candidates for Attorney General are
Democrat George Jepsen, Repubican Kie
Westby, and Green Party candidate Stephen
Fournier. If the election was today, who would
you vote for?
George Jepsen ……………………………………….. 45%
Kie Westby……………………………………………… 30%
Stephen Fournier …………………………………….. 9%
Undecided………………………………………………. 16%
Q10 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Richard Blumenthal’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 49%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q11 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Chris
Murphy’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 44%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q12 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Joe Lieberman?
Favorability …………………………………………….. 45%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q13 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Chris Dodd?
Favorability …………………………………………….. 37%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q14 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of John Rowland?
Favorability …………………………………………….. 17%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 68%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q15 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Linda McMahon?
Favorability …………………………………………….. 36%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q16 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Jeb
Bush, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 50%
Jeb Bush………………………………………………… 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q17 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Chris
Christie, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 49%
Chris Christie ………………………………………….. 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q18 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Ted
Cruz, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 54%
Ted Cruz ………………………………………………… 32%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q19 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Mike
Huckabee, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 53%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q20 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Rand
Paul, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 54%
Rand Paul ………………………………………………. 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q21 Would you support or oppose raising the
minimum wage to $10 an hour?
Support ………………………………………………….. 65%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q22 Given the choices of the Atlanta Braves,
Boston Red Sox, Chicago Cubs, Detroit Tigers,
Minnesota Twins, New York Mets, New York
Yankees, and Philadelphia Phillies, which is
your favorite Major League Baseball team?
Braves …………………………………………………… 1%
Red Sox…………………………………………………. 39%
Cubs ……………………………………………………… 2%
Tigers…………………………………………………….. 1%
Twins……………………………………………………… 1%
Mets………………………………………………………. 7%
Yankees …………………………………………………. 29%
Phillies …………………………………………………… 4%
Someone else / Don’t have a favorite team …. 16%
Q23 Given the choices of the Buffalo Bills, Dallas
Cowboys, Denver Broncos, Green Bay
Packers, New England Patriots, New York
Giants, New York Jets, and Philadelphia
Eagles, which is your favorite NFL team?
Bills ……………………………………………………….. 3%
Cowboys………………………………………………… 6%
Broncos………………………………………………….. 5%
Packers………………………………………………….. 6%
Patriots ………………………………………………….. 33%
Giants ……………………………………………………. 22%
Jets ……………………………………………………….. 4%
Eagles……………………………………………………. 2%
Someone else / Don’t have a favorite team …. 19%
Q24 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 53%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 41%
Someone else / Don’t remember ……………….. 6%
Q25 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 14%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 20%
Moderate………………………………………………… 35%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 21%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 10%
Q26 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q27 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 42%
Republican……………………………………………… 28%
Independent / Other…………………………………. 31%
Q28 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2. If
African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 8%
White …………………………………………………….. 78%
African-American …………………………………….. 9%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%
Q29 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 10%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 28%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 40%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 22%
Q30 Mode
Phone ……………………………………………………. 80%
Internet ………………………………………………….. 20%
