Raleigh, N.C. – A Democrat has not been elected governor in the Nutmeg State since 1986, but in this Republican year, of all years, it looks like that trend will be broken. Despite outgoing Governor Jodi Rell’s popularity, her partymate Tom Foley lags Democrat Dan Malloy, 50-40, defying other recent polls of the race which have shown closer margins for Malloy.
Rell is tied for the fifth most popular of 31 governors PPP has polled this year, with a 51-37 job approval rating. All but nine are in negative territory. But Foley, with a tepid 41-40 favorability rating, cannot match her crossover support. Democrats, who make up a 41% plurality of the electorate, split on Rell, 44-44, but they are way down on Foley, 19-61. He is slightly more popular with Republicans, but they are an even smaller share of the electorate than independents, who give him a 44-30 mark to her 56-34. Malloy is very well liked, with a 50-29 favorability grade.
Unlike his party’s Senate nominee, Linda McMahon, Foley is winning independents in the horse race, but only by a 46-40 margin. His deficit comes from the prevalence of Democrats, 82% of whom are behind Malloy. Foley is holding together only 75% of the GOP because Malloy, as Richard Blumenthal in the Senate race, is getting more of the Republican vote, at 18%, than Foley is of Democrats, at 12%.
“Tom Foley would have to win over a lot of Democrats to be elected Governor of Connecticut and right now he’s not doing that,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Dan Malloy won the primary by a much larger than expected margin and since then he’s been successful at consolidating his party’s voters around his candidacy. Something big would have to happen in the final month for Malloy not to win this race.”
PPP surveyed 810 likely Connecticut voters from September 30th to October 2nd. The survey’s margin of error is +/-3.4%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Complete results are attached, and can be found at www.publicpolicypolling.com.
If you would like an interview regarding this release, please contact Dean Debnam at (888) 621-6988 or 919-880-4888.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 The candidates for Governor are Democrat
Dan Malloy and Republican Tom Foley. If the
election was today, who would you vote for?
Dan Malloy……………………………………………… 50%
Tom Foley ………………………………………………. 40%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Dan Malloy?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 48%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 30%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 22%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tom Foley?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 41%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q4 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Jodi Rell’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 51%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q5 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 39%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 54%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 7%
Q6 If you are a liberal, press 1. If a moderate,
press 2. If a conservative, press 3.
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 19%
Moderate………………………………………………… 49%
Conservative…………………………………………… 32%
Q7 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 47%
Man……………………………………………………….. 53%
Q8 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 41%
Republican……………………………………………… 28%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 31%
Q9 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 77%
Other……………………………………………………… 23%
Q10 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 8%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 25%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 43%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 24%
