Raleigh, N.C. – Pressure from her home state’s voters and from the U.S. Senate’s Democratic leadership if their ranks are thinned following November’s expected Republican tide could push Maine Senator Olympia Snowe to change parties.
Snowe has a decent 50-40 job approval rating, better than her doppelganger Susan Collins’ tepid 45-43. Likely because of their moderate, maverick reputations, both are viewed far better by Democrats and independents than by their fellow Republicans, particularly Snowe. Democrats love Snowe, 59-29, as do independents, 52-39. But Republicans give her an Obama-esque 40-51—a 41-point partisan gap in the opposite direction one would normally see for other politicians.
Overall, 42% of Maine voters think Snowe fits best in the Democratic Party, more than the 37% who think she is comfortable in the GOP. Almost as many Democrats, 36%, think she would be more at home with them as the 37% of Republicans who welcome her and as the 40% of Democrats who think she should stay right where she is. Independents see her slightly more as a Democrat, 38-34. But the real story is that exactly half of Republicans want to exile Snowe to the opposite party.
Behind this force is not only this year’s Tea Party-fueled push for ideological purity by the GOP base, but a gradual trend that has made the New England Republican an endangered species. Republicans are pushing their own out at the same time as the Northeast generally becomes more and more Democratic. Indeed, 63% of Republicans see Snowe as too liberal, more than the 60% of Democrats and 55% of independents who view her as “about right.”
“Olympia Snowe may have more power in a diminished Democratic Senate caucus and an easier time winning re-election in two years if she hews to her voters’ wishes,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.
PPP surveyed 1,468 likely Maine voters from September 2nd to 6th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-2.6%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
If you would like an interview regarding this release, please contact Dean Debnam at (888) 621-6988 or 919-880-4888.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Susan Collins’ job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 45%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Olympia Snowe’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 50%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q3 Do you think Olympia Snowe more properly
belongs in the Democratic Party or the
Republican Party?
Democratic Party …………………………………….. 42%
Republican Party …………………………………….. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%
Q4 Do you think Olympia Snowe is too liberal, too
conservative, or about right?
Too liberal ………………………………………………. 35%
Too conservative……………………………………… 17%
About right ……………………………………………… 49%
Q5 Do you think same sex marriage should be
legal or illegal?
Legal……………………………………………………… 43%
Illegal …………………………………………………….. 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q6 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 44%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 51%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 5%
Q7 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 19%
Moderate………………………………………………… 43%
Conservative…………………………………………… 38%
Q8 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q9 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 37%
Republican……………………………………………… 39%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 25%
Q10 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 97%
Other……………………………………………………… 3%
Q11 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1 now. If
you are 30 to 45, press 2. If you are 46 to 65,
press 3. If older, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 9%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 21%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 42%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 28%
