Raleigh, N.C. – Both Chellie Pingree and Mike Michaud have high single-digit leads against their Republican opponents for another term representing Maine in the U.S. House, but both are also under 50%. And while Pingree is nearly matching her 2008 showing for her first and current term, Michaud is vastly underperforming in the more Republican of the two districts.
Since his first race to serve the 2nd Congressional District, which he won by 4 points in 2002, Michaud has been re-elected by margins of 18, 41, and 33 points in stronger Democratic years. But he now leads Jason Levesque only 45-38, despite 68% of voters still having no opinion of the Republican. Michaud does have his base locked up, 81-9, and only 65% of Republicans support Levesque, with Michaud at 14%. But 21% of the 41%-plurality GOP is undecided, so that unity gap will likely close in the next two months. Michaud will also have to hold his current 43-34 lead with independents.
Pingree is not doing much better judging solely by the toplines. She won 55-45 two years ago, and now tops Dean Scontras, 47-38. But considering that a Congressperson’s first re-election race is usually the toughest of her career, and that she has a shorter vote record and less claim on the establishment mantle that is hampering so many incumbent Democrats, and that the demographics of her district are more favorable than Michaud’s, this seat is in considerably stronger shape for retention. Democrats have a 39-37 turnout advantage in the 1st Congressional District, versus the 5-point Republican edge in the 2nd. And President Obama almost breaks even, with a 46-48 approval rating in Pingree’s district, to a 41-54 in Michaud’s. Like Levesque, two-thirds have no opinion of Scontras, but the latter almost matches Pingree in terms of party unity. His deficit comes from Pingree’s 49-27 lead with unaffiliated voters.
PPP surveyed 790 likely Maine 1st Congressional District voters, for a margin of error of +/-3.5%, and 678 likely Maine 2nd Congressional District voters, for a margin of error of +/-3.8%, from September 2nd to 6th. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Complete results are attached, and can be found at www.publicpolicypolling.com.
If you would like an interview regarding this release, please contact Dean Debnam at (888) 621-6988 or 919-880-4888.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 46%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q2 Do you support or oppose President Obama’s
health care plan, or do you not have an
opinion?
Support ………………………………………………….. 45%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 47%
No opinion………………………………………………. 8%
Q3 Do you approve or disapprove of
Congresswoman Chellie Pingree’s job
performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 40%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Dean Scontras?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 15%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 20%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 66%
Q5 The candidates for Congress are Democrat
Chellie Pingree and Republican Dean
Scontras. If the election was today, who would
you vote for?
Chellie Pingree ……………………………………….. 47%
Dean Scontras ………………………………………… 38%
Undecided………………………………………………. 15%
Q6 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 41%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 54%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 4%
Q7 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 21%
Moderate………………………………………………… 44%
Conservative…………………………………………… 34%
Q8 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%
Q9 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 39%
Republican……………………………………………… 37%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 25%
Q10 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 97%
Other……………………………………………………… 3%
Q11 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1 now. If
you are 30 to 45, press 2. If you are 46 to 65,
press 3. If older, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 7%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 23%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 41%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 29%
Q12
1st………………………………………………………….100%
2nd………………………………………………………… 0%
