Raleigh, N.C. – Maine voters are
leaning towards legalizing gay marriage, but it looks like it will be probably
be close. 52% of voters say that they plan to vote yes on Question 1 to 44% who
are opposed. When we ask simply whether or not voters think same sex marriage
should be legal, 52% say it should be while 40% think it should not.
“Our experience in polling gay marriage is that if people say they’re undecided
it usually means they’re opposed to it,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public
Policy Polling. “Despite the 8 point lead for passage this should be seen as a
very close race.”
There’s a pretty significant gender gap on this issue with women supporting
Question1 58-38, while men oppose it 50/47. There’s a major divide along
generational lines as well with voters under 65 support it by a 56/41 margin,
but those over 65 opposing it 53/41.
Paul LePage continues to be one of the most unpopular Governors in the
country with only 37% of voters approving of him to 52% who disapprove.
He trails a generic Democratic opponent for reelection by a 48/40 margin,
including 45/38 with independents. Of course LePage got elected in 2010 with
less than 40% of the vote so if there’s a strong independent candidate and that
person and the Democratic candidate cannibalize each other enough LePage could
continue to be really unpopular and get himself reelected anyway. Probably
related to voters’ unhappiness with LePage, Democrats lead the generic
legislative ballot in the state by a 48/37 margin.
Maine continues to have, along with Wyoming and Vermont, one of the few
states in the country where both Senators have a 60% or more approval rating.
Olympia Snowe’s approval rating as she prepares to leave office is 63% with 25%
of voters disapproving of her. She is most popular with Democrats (70/20),
followed by independents (64/24), then Republicans (54/32). Susan Collins is
only slightly less popular than her senior colleague. 60% of voters give her
good marks to 26% who disapprove. Unless Collins retires there doesn’t appear
to be much point in Democrats trying to seriously contest her seat in 2014. She
leads a generic Democratic opponent 59-25, taking 34% of the Democratic vote and
leading 64-17 with independents.
PPP surveyed 804 likely Maine voters on
September 17th and 18th. The margin of error for the overall survey
is +/-3.5%. This poll was not paid for
or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted
through automated telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Question 1 would allow the State of Maine to
issue marriage licenses to same-sex couples.
If the election was today, would you vote yes or
no on question 1?
Yes………………………………………………………… 52%
No …………………………………………………………. 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%
Q2 Do you think same-sex marriage should be
legal or illegal?
Legal……………………………………………………… 52%
Illegal …………………………………………………….. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q3 If there was an election for state legislature
today, would you vote Democratic or
Republican?
Democratic……………………………………………… 48%
Republican……………………………………………… 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q4 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Paul LePage’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 37%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 52%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q5 Generally speaking, if there was an election for
Governor today, would you vote for Republican
Paul LePage or his Democratic opponent?
Paul LePage …………………………………………… 40%
Democratic opponent……………………………….. 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q6 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Olympia Snowe’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 63%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 25%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q7 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Susan Collins’ job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 60%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 26%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q8 Generally speaking, if there was an election for
the Senate today, would you vote for
Republican Susan Collins or her Democratic
opponent?
Susan Collins………………………………………….. 59%
Democratic opponent……………………………….. 25%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q9 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 9%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 24%
Moderate………………………………………………… 32%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 23%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 12%
Q10 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 51%
Man……………………………………………………….. 49%
Q11 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 42%
Republican……………………………………………… 29%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 29%
Q12 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 96%
Other……………………………………………………… 4%
Q13 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 33%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 46%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 21%
