Polls

Lynch Still Up By Double Digits Over Stephen

| Tom Jensen

Header-poll-resultsRaleigh, N.C. – John Stephen looked the most likely victor in the New Hampshire GOP gubernatorial primary, and the strongest possible challenger to incumbent Democrat John Lynch, all along.  Taken just before the primary that propelled Stephen to the general election, PPP’s first survey of likely voters in the state shows that while Stephen has closed his deficit to Lynch by five points since the previous survey of registered voters in July, he still lags by 12 points.

Lynch tops Stephen, 51-39, a closer result than the previous survey’s 51-34.  The governor’s standing in the horse race tracks very closely with his 51-38 job approval rating, suggesting that although Stephen has upped his name recognition and personal favorability from 14-21 two months ago to 31-30 now, he is still fairly unknown, and cannot take advantage of the significantly pro-Republican enthusiasm gap that is boosting Kelly Ayotte over Paul Hodes.

Lynch’s popularity gives him 93% of his own party’s vote, along with 13% of Republicans, which, along with Stephen’s unknown quantity holding the GOP at 13% undecided (versus 3% of Democrats), puts the Republican at only 74% support in his party, a huge Democratic party unity advantage when in most races Republicans are more unified.  Lynch also leads independents, 46-41.  Stephen has actually upped his support among both Republicans and independents since July, but Lynch has improved among Democrats even more.

“John Lynch is still one of the most popular governors in the country,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.  “He is bucking a lot of trends facing other Democratic incumbent governors and senators, making him still a strong favorite for re-election, in spite of Republicans being much more excited to turn out and vote.”

PPP surveyed 1,959 likely New Hampshire voters on September 11th and 12th.  The margin of error is +/-2.2%.  Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

Complete results are attached, and can be found at www.publicpolicypolling.com.

If you would like an interview regarding this release, please contact Dean Debnam at (888) 621-6988 or 919-880-4888.

Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 If the candidates for Governor this fall were
Democrat John Lynch and Republican John
Stephen, who would you vote for?
John Lynch …………………………………………….. 51%
John Stephen………………………………………….. 39%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%

Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
John Lynch’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 51%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of John Stephen?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 31%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 30%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 39%

Q4 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 47%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 47%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 6%

Q5 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 21%
Moderate………………………………………………… 41%
Conservative…………………………………………… 39%

Q6 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%

Q7 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 35%
Republican……………………………………………… 36%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 30%

Q8 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 94%
Other……………………………………………………… 6%

Q9 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 6%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 20%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 50%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 24%

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